DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

When I tell people how I make money, I get one of four responses:

1 - Yeah sure, you probably only tell people about your wins. Nobody wins at gambling.
2 - Oh my God, that is the coolest thing ever. It must be so glamorous. I would love to be able to do that.
3 - I have no idea what that is. I have tuned out of this conversation. I am literally falling asleep with every word you utter.
4 - My brother has a gambling problem. People like you disgust me. I have no respect for people who contribute nothing to the world and prey on the stupid, drunk and/or chronically addicted.

My answer to these people uniformly go as follows:

1 - I assure you I don't. When I say what I won last week I'm telling u the net sum. But okay, whatever. I don't need to justify myself to you beyond that.
2 - Yeah, its really glamorous! I lie in bed in my robe and underpants with my laptop on my belly, pushing buttons really quickly.
3 - Fair enough! Lets change the subject to what you do, you probably fascinating human being.
4 - Hand-on-heart, I struggle with that stuff. I am aware of how I do not contribute to society and that is why I am very focused on maintaining a balance between poker and writing.

I don't expect people to take an interest in what I do but sometimes people are curious and probe me for details. What's it like being an online poker player? Is it significantly different to a 'regular job'? Is it easy to lose touch with reality? What's the day-to-day grind of it like? Do you have an average day? How consistently do you make money?

Playing poker is tough psychologically. The swings can mess with your head. My girlfriend suffered a recent bad run which I believed pushed her to the limits of her tolerance for the cruelty and unfairness of the game. She's a quality player and she dug herself out. As they say in sport; "form is temporary, class is permanent". But it made me realise how poker has the ability to rock you to your core. It can fuck with your equilibrium, erode your confidence, force you to stare at the abyss. Inner-strength and self-belief have to be maintained through significant droughts and you must of course be sufficiently open-minded to recognise when perhaps the fault of a bad run lies with your game. You must have the humility to acknowledge the leaks and plug them before they ruin you.

Poker is different to most other lines of work but is similar to some. The analogy I constantly use is that of a cafe-owner. Your poker business is your coffee-shop. You rely on your business acumen to survive in a competitive industry. You live and die on your wits. Your shop has profitable days, break-even days and days where you make a loss. By the end of each month, however, you must finish with a net profit or else you will struggle. Several down months in a row and you're out of business. Several good months in a row and you can expand your operation.

It can be easy to lose touch with reality. In essence, I play a video-game and as fans of 'World of Warcraft', 'Halo 3' and 'Tetris' (my own personal fave!) can testify, it is easy to get lost in that world. The main difference is that poker has an obvious reference point back into reality - the money. A dollar earned online translates back to a dollar that I can spend in the real world.

To offer a glimpse into the day-to-day grind of online poker, I kept a brief daily summary - a financial diary, if you will - of the past 10 days. In my next blog entry, I will publish that summary and as you will see, there is no 'average day' and over such a short period, my results are pretty damn inconsistent.

#50 - Feb 20th '09: "Twinkle, Twinkle, Platinum Star" 02/20/2009

3 Comments

#49 - Feb 20th '09: "Oscar Predictions" 02/20/2009

Here's one for the people who don't know anything/give a damn about poker...

Every year for the past ten, my good friend Leslie and I have had a wager on the Oscar results. We're both cinephiles and generally see everything worth seeing every year. He consistently had the better of me throughout our teens as he subscribed to a dozen different film magazines. They were of particular assistance to him when he made his picks for the more obscure categories. In 2001, I insisted that something needed to be done to remove his obvious edge and from then onward, we have only made choices on the main categories.

The following is a list of my official picks (the ones I think 'will' win) as well as several digressions as I mention the ones I think should win, should have been nominated, should not win and should not have been nominated:

BEST PICTURE
'Slumdog Millionaire' will win but of those nominated, my fave was 'Frost/Nixon'. Of the others, I thought 'The Reader' was very good, 'Milk' was decent and 'Benjamin Button' was a pile of wank. The one shameful omission from those nominated is 'The Wrestler' which would get my vote as movie of the year.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle will take it down as the Best Director and Best Film Oscars generally go to the same movie. Again, of those nominated, Ron Howard would get my vote but Darren Aronofsky should be the winner.

BEST ACTOR
A really strong category this year but Mickey Rourke is untouchable and he deserves to be. You could stick your house on him. Frank Langella would have a great chance in any other year for what was an incredible performance as Richard Nixon. Richard Jenkins would be my next favourite for his performance is the delightful indi-film 'The Visitor'. Sean Penn was solid in 'Milk' and if there is to be an upset, he would be the one to nick it from Rourke. The inclusion of Brad Pitt in this category is laughable and if I had my way, I would have given the 5th nomination to Josh Brolin for the overlooked 'W'.

BEST ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie's performance in 'Changeling' might take it down in a different year but the Oscar will go to Kate Winslet for her remarkable performance in 'The Reader'. Meryl Streep gives a powerhouse performance in 'Doubt' and Anne Hathaway is delightful in the surprisingly excellent 'Rachel Getting Married'. I must confess that I didn't see 'Frozen River' so cannot comment on Melissa Leo.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is the weirdest bunch of nominations in Oscar history. Heath Ledger (the bookies make him a ridiculous 50-1) will win because he's dead and the Academy feel the need to do weird shit like that to honour a dead actor's work. Don't get me wrong, he was a brilliant Joker but mannered/stylised performances that are in essence 'over-acted' such not be honoured by the Academy (maybe the MTV Movie Awards but not the Oscars!). Michael Shannon in 'Revolutionary Road' is similarly over-the-top - again not a bad performance, just not Oscar-worthy. Josh Brolin turned in a blah performance in 'Milk' and Robert Downey Junior's nomination for Tropic Thunder is perhaps the most bizarre. In fact, the only worthy nominee is Philip Seymour Hoffman for 'Doubt' but he has no chance because he churns out performances of this calibre so often these days that no-one will consider this effort remarkable by his standards.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The buzz suggests that Penelope Cruz won't be denied so I'll have to make her my prediction. She is fantastic in the messy but not altogether bad Woody Allen film 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'. Cruz is one of the best actresses in the world when she's working in her native language and deserves the recognition. Marissa Tomei is perfectly fine in 'The Wrestler' but she doesn't have a great deal to do. Taraji Henson is nice in 'Benjamin Button' but nothing outstanding. Amy Adams turns in a pleasant effort in 'Doubt'. However, in what is truly the greatest scene of the year and her only scene in the film, Viola Davis deserves to give Cruz a run for her money for her extraordinary 8 minutes in 'Doubt'.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I have only seen three of the five movies in this category but with the utmost respect to 'Frozen River' and 'Happy-Go-Lucky', they are the three that are believed to be in the running. Milk's Dustin Lance Black is the favourite and probable winner, Wall-E's writing trio of Stanton, Docter and Reardon are most deserving but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the Oscar will go to Irishman Martin McDonagh for 'In Bruges'. For the record, I thoroughly disliked 'In Bruges' and in particular, I thought the writing was clumsy and unfunny. Jokes about midgets, hookers, fat americans and the mentally retarded whiffs of lazy writing but for some reason, people have lapped it up. It shouldn't win. It shouldn't even have gotten nominated. But it will win and people will hail Martin McDonagh a genius.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
'Slumdog Millionaire''s Simon Beaufoy will win this. Again favourable mentions should go to Peter Morgan for 'Frost/Nixon', David Hare for 'The Reader' and JP Shanley for 'Doubt'.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
'Slumdog' will win but might get a run for its money by 'Benjamin Button'.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
'Wall-E' is the front-runner and deserves to be.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
'Waltz with Bashir' is an incredibly original piece of work - both an animated documentary chronicling the horrors of the Lebanon War and a psychoanalysis of its author, a crusade to rediscover his repressed memories. While I haven't seen any of the others, it would be a tough one to beat.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
I only saw 'Man On Wire' and it was brilliant so I'll go for that!

BEST SONG
'Slumdog' is up for two of the three in this category. It will win for the super-catchy 'Jai Ho' but where the fuck is Bruce Springstein's 'The Wrestler'?

The 81st Annual Academy Awards are this Sunday, February 22nd at 8pm ET or 1am on Monday morning for us Paddies. They will be hosted by Hugh Jackman with the help of some comic material prepared by Ricky Gervais.

#48 - Feb 16th '09: "LAPPIN the Ironman or LAPPIN the Tinman?" 02/16/2009

The stage was set... LAPPIN the Ironman versus the Gold, Silver and Bronze men of the previous day's freerolls. Victory would mean a cool $5K and the chance to take on three Full Tilt pros heads-up for an additional 100K.

Three Europeans and one American. Three men and one woman. Two profitable players and two donators. I was drawn in the semi-final versus a charming German lady by the screen-name Sandrakiller. She was funny and amiable, happy to have a bit of banter in the chat-box. The contest lasted 30 minutes. I was on the ropes from the start. Hand #2: I had 10J on a 10-9-8-7-6 board. She had JQ. I lost the minimum but a nonetheless significant 500 chips. We tussled for the next 15 minutes, my chip-stack hovering between 600 and 1050. I was paralysed by my lack of chips, unable to make as many plays as I would like. My chance came when, with 950 chips, I re-raised all-in with 88 and held versus AJ. "Now I can get aggressive and run her over", I thought.

Two hands later, with the blinds 40/80, she limped into my BB and with K10, I shoved. BOOOOOM! She flipped up QQ and they held. She trapped me good. The next 10 hands saw us both play aggressively with the button. With 150 chips out there to steal, I shoved mine 3 hands in a row. Each time, I had legitimate holdings. Ace-9, pocket 5s and then A8. The third time, she tanked. She scribbled A3 into the chatbox and I was praying for a call. I got my wish as she flipped up the A3 of spades. The flop was a mixed blessing - all babies but 2 spades. There would be no chop. Either she would miss and I would take a commanding chip-lead or she would catch and I would be on the rail. Unfortunately it was the latter as the 8 of spades came on the river. GG me!

#47 - Feb 14th '09: "The Slump is Over as LAPPIN Puts a Little Iron in His Diet" 02/14/2009

My worst ever downswing was followed by two days of illness which sidelined me from poker since last Thursday. This morning, however, I woke up feeling somewhat recovered, somewhat meaning the hallucinations I had experienced had passed but I was still enduring a slight temperature and headache. There was a freeroll to be played so I logged in to Full Tilt and took my seat in the 600-player Ironman Tourney at 16.45ET.

I took my usual approach to these freerolls - Play insanely LAG from ball one and take advantage of players looking to squeak into the money (the Ironman pays out 30% of the field). My plan worked and by the time we were down to 18 players remaining, I was 2nd in chips. I was still 2nd once it went Final Table but with myself and WPTFuji enjoying almost 500K in chips each and the next nearest holding 140K, it looked to be a two horse-race.

From the back of the pack, a third horse - smr - entered the fray but he never really got on level terms. 3-handed, I had 700k, fuji had 800k and smr had 300k. Blinds were exchanged for a dozen on so orbits before smr chopped his remaining 200k preflop. I had 88 so put him all-in. he flipped up KK but I flopped and turned an 8 to send him packing (pure skill!). Heads-up, my plan was to small-ball Fuji as he is a mega-multitabling small stakes super turbo expert. I got the better of the early exchanges, twice slowplaying 2nd pair, letting him catch up and getting value on the river. Then I made a successful semi-bluff with a flush draw (probably getting him off 2nd or bottom pair). After 13 hands, I had 1.35 million to his 450,000. The next hand, I had K10 on 10 high board with 2 spades. Fuji had the AQ of spades. Naturally all the money got in and we were off to the races. The turn came the Jack of Hearts, giving him an additional 3 outs (a whopping 18 in total!) and making it a real sweat. Thankfully the Jack of Clubs came on the river and that was that.

$4500 and a place in tomorrow's 4-man heads-up SNG for another 5K. GL ME!

#45 - Feb 11th '09: "Full Tilt Show Their American Colours as They Launch a Pre-emptive War on LAPPIN and Rounder63" 02/11/2009

#46 - Feb 12th '09: "The War is Over" 02/12/2009

2 Comments

I just received the following mail from Full Tilt's security Team:

Hello David,

Thank you for your email and patience in this matter.

After further review and consideration, we have lifted the table ruling in regards to your play with player "Rounder63." As such, you are permitted to participate in games or tournaments with the player in question.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused; however, we hope you understand that our security protocols are in place for the protection of both the site and our players.

David, we appreciate your business. On behalf of Full Tilt Poker, I wish you the best of luck at the tables.

Regards,

Tim
Security
Full Tilt Poker

That's right - a full retraction and apology to boot! Now we just need to get the same out of George W!

2 Comments

At 19.14ET on February 11th, 2009, Full Tilt launched a full frontal attack on the livelihoods of LAPPIN and Rounder63. Why? Do we have a secret stash of WMDs? Are we suspected of having ties with Al-Qadea? Do we have oil? The following letter was in my e-mail this evening:

Hello David,

We recently concluded a security review of your account, specifically regarding your association with Rounder63. We are concerned about the high volume of games that you have participated in with this player. Taking into consideration your direct associations, we are implementing the following conditions:

1) You are not permitted to sit together at the same cash game tables.
2) You are not permitted to play together in tournaments found under the "Sit & Go" tab, including the 45 to 180 player Sit & Gos.
3) You are permitted to play in two person heads-up Sit & Gos against each other.
4) You are permitted to play in the same scheduled multi-table tournaments found under the "Tournaments" tab.

If you both play at the same table in a multi-table tournament, keep in mind that acts of collusion such as sharing hole cards or soft playing will lead to an investigation. This may result in account suspensions and forfeiture of funds.

We kindly request that you respond to this email acknowledging that you will adhere to the above conditions.

David, Full Tilt Poker strives not only to take appropriate action when collusion is found, but also to proactively prevent collusion before it occurs. We apologize for any inconvenience. However, we are sure you understand the need for stringent security to protect the integrity of our site.

Thank you for your cooperation.

Regards,

Tim
Security
Full Tilt Poker

My response was penned just moments ago:

Dear Tim,

While I recognise that two players playing a high volume of games together is something that requires your attention, I think that there are a number of relevant factors of which you may not be aware.

Since September 2007, Nick Carrillo has played 9720 45-player SNGs on Full Tilt (the most prolific on the site)
Since September 2007, I have played 5348 45-player SNGs on Full Tilt (the 2nd most prolific)

According to Sharkscope, Nick has played 33700 games on Full Tilt. I have played 12393. We have played 980 games together, representing 2.9% of his overall play and 7.9% of mine. I make no effort to play in the same games as Nick (except when we might have a last-longer bet!), nor do I try to avoid him.

9720 of Nick's games have been on the 45-player circuit while 5348 of mine have been. This is, without doubt, where the vast majority of our games have overlapped. This means that, at most, only 10.1% of Nick's and 18.3% of my 45-player games were played together. Considering our volume of games (I'm sure there are times when we both enter every single available 45-player game in a two-hour period), this seems to me a sensible statistic.

To offer a comparison with the next 4 most prolific players on the 45-player circuit:

Nick has played 9405 45-player games ($24 or more)
Break_evan has played 3123 45-player games ($24 or more)
Bethwolf22 has played 3008 45-player games ($24 or more)
ChicagoAPA has played 3219 45-player games ($24 or more)
Dr Fill Good has played 2588 45-player games ($24 or more)

Nick has played 980 games in which I have also participated.
Break_evan has played 295 games in which I have also participated.
Bethwolf22 has played 293 games in which I have also participated.
ChicagAPA has played 292 games in which I have also participated.
Dr Fill Good has played 224 games in which I have also participated.

Expressed as a %, Break_evan has played 33.2% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games ($24 or more)
Expressed as a %, Break_evan has played 30.1% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games in which I also participated

Expressed as a %, Bethwolf22 has played 32% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games ($24 or more)
Expressed as a %, Bethwolf22 has played 29.9% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games in which I also participated

Expressed as a %, ChicagoAPA has played 34.2% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games ($24 or more)
Expressed as a %, ChicagoAPA has played 29.8% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games in which I also participated

Expressed as a %, Dr Fill Good has played 27.5% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games ($24 or more)
Expressed as a %, Dr Fill Good has played 22.8% of Nick's Volume of 45-player games in which I also participated

While these statistics show that I am statistically slightly more likely to be in a game with Nick than any of the other regular players, the difference, I hope you will agree is negligible.

Nick and I met on Full Tilt. I am sure our first ever exchanges are retrievable from the chat-box of some 45-player Final Table 18 months ago. We both play online poker for a living and therefore, it is in both our vested interests to play when the site is at peak traffic (between 2pm ET after the Europeans have come home from work on to 4am ET when the West Coast Americans go to bed) . There are two reasons for this; firstly, the games load faster and as multi-tablers (Nick plays up to 15 games at once while I play 10), it is in our financial best interests to keep our screens as full as possible; secondly, when the site is at peak traffic, the likelihood is that there will be more poor quality players in the field.) As a West-Coast American, these are normal waking hours in Nick's part of the world. While it would be considered by my friends and family that I keep anti-social hours, it is a sacrifice I have been willing to make. I tailor my lifestyle/sleeping pattern around online poker and do my best to play when it is optimal to do so.

Nick and I are friends. We share poker insights, analyse hands, stake each other in tournaments, argue over optimal strategies and offer moral support to the another when the grind of online poker and the negative swings get us down. We have been integral to one another's development as players, an association which has led to us both becoming very profitable in the game. However, we have never and would never collude on the poker table and in fact, enjoy a healthy rivalry, as we do with many other MTT and SNG rounders with whom we are friends (over a dozen of which are also 45-player game regulars I might add). If we ever play a cash game or 9-handed SNG together (and we very rarely do), we get a table of friends together so we can all 'go at it!' We would never share information about our hands to dupe an opponent and the idea that you even could collude while playing a dozen games each is hysterical. You barely have enough time to get a sip of water between decisions, let alone mastermind a scheme to rid some punter from his chips. The notion of cheating is anathama to my very being and I know this to be true of Nick also. In short, we are honourable people.

The 45-player circuit is a most lucrative area of Full Tilt which provides the professionals who play on it consistent income with lower volatility than the MTT circuit. I have been graduating into the MTT arena more of late but still rely on the 45s for about 65% or more of my play. While I cannot speak for him, I believe Nick's outlay is similar. I play 10 (sometimes 12) games at once and he plays 15. If we are both playing at the same time, it is inevitable that we would want to be in the same games. A discussion on how we could even go about dividing up territory has already led to an argument between us. Neither of us will wish to play fewer games and thereby lose money and, assuming that there is no software in place to block one of us once the other has registered, we will be forced to compete for seats in tournaments, a sort-of 'who has the fastest internet connection gets in first' scenario. Even then, what if we were to both register? Would the person who register last be to blame? What if we both saw that a tournament had 40 people in it and was filling fast? We saw that the other wasn't present but just as we entered, the other did and then the tourney filled and we were seated, unable to unregister. What if we both registered for a game just as one of our 12 screens popped up (as is inevitable when you are making a poker decision every 3 seconds), prompting a decision and because of this we missed that the other had entered at the same moment, only to find outwhen the game starts and we are sitting opposite each other (or when we reach the final table, unaware that the other was in the tourney all along!). What if we both enter simultaneously? How do we decide who must unregister? I am not willing to make a trans-Atlantic phone-call every time this happens and even if I was, who's to say I would successfully contact him before the tourney started. You see, logistically, what you are proposing causes a great deal of hassle.

I appreciate that you are not accusing us of any wrong-doing. I do however, have a problem with the term 'proactively prevent collusion before it occurs'. That, in my opinion, is tantamount to having a man's penis removed for fear that he may rape someone in the future. If there has been no crime committed, it is wrong to take punitive action against someone who 'is capable' of committing a crime. I am sure you have sophisticated ways of monitoring collusion: tracking player's hole cards and actions, matching them up to what would be considered appropriate action in any given situation. If I am guilty of cheating, I should be banned from the site and blacklisted from other sites. But I should not be restricted from playing freely within the card-room on the basis of what I 'might' do.

Yours sincerely,

David K Lappin

I am hopeful that this matter will be rectified as soon as possible. Watch this space!

#44 - Feb 10th '09: "Kasparov Humbled by Deep Blue/Lappin Humbled by Full Tilt Donks" 02/11/2009

February 10th, 1996: the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue beat Russian Chess Grandmaster Gary Kasparov for the first time.
February 10th, 2009: LAPPIN gets torn a new asshole by his Full Tilt opponents as he loses a 4-figure sum for the first time.

I usually love to set new personal records. This latest one, however, is nothing to write home (or indeed a blog?) about. According to Sharkscope, today is my new 'WORST DAY EVER' as I dumped $1163 during a 7-hour and 38 game session between midnight and 7am. My previous worst day was December 10th '08 when I lost $931 in 57 games, followed closely by December 18th '08 when I lost $882 in 49 games.

Sickeningly, the session could have been super-profitable:
- I came 13th in an FTOPS satellite where 12 got seats.
- I made 5 45-player Final Tables (3 of the 69ers), coming 9th, 8th, 8th, 7th and 6th. In four of these I had better than average stacks when the FT began.
- I had a 10th and two 11ths in 45s.
- I made a deep run in the 50/50, coming 42nd of 1300, getting a lousy $150 for my troubles!
- I probably shipped $100 or more to Paddy 'Dr Fill Good' McAllister in random side bet/prop bet/last-longer/pick the colour of the next 11 flops/who will win the next hand/who will bubble/who will get to a 20K stack first/'how many fingers am I holding up?' action!

Curiously, I'm not too blue. I'm okay with the idea of 4-figure bad days because I've been playing higher stakes the last 3 months and there have been way more 4-figure good days as a result. Poker thresholds are always going to be pushed. As you move up, it's just something you have to get used to. (I am reminded of Jennifer Harman's story about the first time she lost a million dollars in a session.)

Kasparov rebounded over the next five games against Deep Blue, winning three and drawing two, to soundly 'pwn' the machine over the series. I have the opportunity to salvage the day, possibly saving it from its 'Worst Day Ever' status if I manage to make a couple of hundred this evening before midnight.

#43 - Feb 10th '09: "Postcard from Durrow's First Internet Cafe" 02/10/2009

After a not so hot start to February - lots of 69er Final Tables but far too many 5ths-9ths - a trip to my family in Durrow, Co. Laois last weekend finally got me into the black for the month.

The arrival of wireless internet - a very exotic thing in Ireland's midlands - meant that I didn't have to freeze my ass off in my father's office to play poker. Instead, I commandeered the kids play-room (or 'internet cafe' as I now call it) which is directly under his office and gets a decent signal. Two nights ago, I made a bunch of $69 and $24 Final Tables, winning 3 and placing well in a sprinkling of others. Last night, I won a couple of $24 games and went deep in the $22,500 Guarantee but fell just short of the Final Table, taking 11th.

It has been a month since I hit a decent MTT score but I'm not worrying as since coming to Ireland, I have played shorter sessions and therefore way fewer big tourneys. That said, I'm going to have a crack at the FTOPS Turbo Event in an hour's time. This crazy wee $200 tourney will only take 4 hours despite having a field of over 3000 players. First gets over 100K so not a bad hourly rate?