DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

Last April, Dublin Bellybusters and BadBeatsPoker.net hosted the inaugural ISOP (International Series of Online Poker) on the Full Tilt Poker Site. The Series was enjoyed by 76 players who took to the cyber-felt to compete for a total prize-pool of $18290. This month, the Bellybusters and BadBeats gang are going to do it all again. Between November 14th and 22nd, there will be a total of 17 tournaments. The password for all the tourneys is 'jiggerypokery' and the more the merrier!

The schedule for ISOP #2 is as follows:

Sat, Nov 14th, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP WARM UP EVENT
9-HANDED NLHE
$10+1
10 minute levels
1500 stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT I
6-HANDED NLHE - Antes From The Start
$100+9
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT II
9-HANDED NLHE
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - EVENT III
9-HANDED PLO
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Mon, Nov 16th 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT IV
9-HANDED NLHE
$20+2 REBUY
10 minute levels
1500 Rebuys/2000 Top-Ups

Tue, Nov 17th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT V
9-HANDED MLHE (Rounds of Limit Hold Em and NL Hold Em)
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VI
PLO Heads-Up Shootout (16 max)
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 21.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VII
6-HANDED NLHE 2x Shootout (36 max)
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 22.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VIII
9-HANDED NLHE TURBO
$100+9
5 minute levels
3K stack

Thur, Nov 19th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT IX
8-HANDED HORSE
$50+5
6 minute levels
5K stack

Fri, Nov 20th, 2009, 19.00ET
ISOP - EVENT X
6-HANDED NLHE
$30+3 1 REBUY 1 ADD-ON
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XI
9-HANDED NLHE KO
$100+9 ($20 PER KO)
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XII
Heads-Up NLHE Shootout (16 max)
$50+5
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XIII
6-HANDED NLHE TURBO
$24+2
5 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XIV
6-HANDED HA (Rounds of Pot Limit Hold Em and PLO)
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XV
9-HANDED NLHE 'DOUBLE CHANCE'
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - MAIN EVENT
9-HANDED NLHE
$200+16
10 minute levels
5000 stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP CHARITY EVENT
6-HANDED NLHE SUPER TURBO
$5+5
3 minute levels
300 stack

There are satellites starting an hour before most of the events. The password for the satellites is 'ISOP'. Good luck to everyone who participates.

As many of the subscribers to this blog will know, I am a moderator and avid poster on the badbeatspoker.net forum. A truly excellent site with an intelligent and analytic membership, I often find the discussions I have on there both stimulating and inspiring. A recent thread started by Ryan Meyer, a fellow Bellybuster, prompted me to think about my own current predicament. Despite being an excellent and profitable player, he is currently struggling to make money from poker. His poor run has gone on for far longer than 'normal variance' and I couldn't help but see a huge similarity between his situation and my own. I wrote the following response which was immediately appreciated by several of my fellow forumers. I hope that it may be of help to other players who get into a funk from time to time:

"I myself have been running horribly of late and it is my belief now that bad luck is being compounded by bad play on my part. When things aren't going your way, I find that it can go one of two ways:

1 You loosen up in an effort to bash your way through the field... this takes the form of dinky-shipping (shoving for more than 10BBs with too wide a range from too reckless a position - yes PureProfitFour, there is such a thing as too wide and too reckless!), raising marginal hands from EP and getting caught having to make difficult decisions on later streets, re-raising with marginal holdings to late position raisers too often because your feeling like gambling, etc.

2 you become nitty in an effort to navigate your way through the field... this takes the form of playing too narrow a range from late position, never re-stealing with marginal hands, not c-betting when you miss and allowing yourself to be blinded down to the 5-7 BBs range before making an all-in play.

I think over the past two months, I've lost faith in the game that had made me a lot of money. I have developed the belief that it is no longer a profitable game, that mine has become an out-dated strategy, too exploitable and that the ever-growing number of pro-standard players on the 45man circuit have, for the most part taken the game onto a level which is forcing me to adapt my style.

Firstly, I think there is some truth to this. The game is tougher of late with far more profitable players per game on average. That, in itself, must lower ROI expectations and thus, we must lower our longterm profit goals per game. There is also the fact that poker has entered a new paradigm; it is no longer correct to wait until you have 5 BBs (in a game with no antes) before you should be All-in-Or-Fold as it was 10 years ago. It is no longer correct to wait until you have 7-8 BBs as it was 2-3 years ago. It is now imperative that you consider a 10 (possibly even 12-13) BB stack as a stack with no more poker to it. It is a stack which forces you out of the realm of regular poker and into a game of intimidation whereby you apply maximum pressure on your opponents by playing their calling-hand-ranges against them. Good players have realised this and have adjusted their calling ranges appropriately. They also recognise that endgame poker has become an all-out war for whatever fold-equity is left in the game. To these guys, the cards have not only become less relevant. They have become the enemy! Showdown is the enemy! If the cards are the luck factor, then for f**k sake, don't let them into the game wherever possible.

I would say that my game was a tighter, trappier game than that of the majority of online pros. My counter-strategy to their over-playing of hands (I don't use this term negatively) was to trap them so that we play big pots when I have a 70-30 edge. To do this, I limped hands like AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ and JJ with 12-15 BBs in EP and midP, hoping that a later position player would either shove light or raise, in which case I would call or reship all-in. The downside of this strategy was that I allowed the blinds to see flops with raggy hands and catch up on my QQ and AK with hands like K4 and 95. In these instances, I had to be willing to make some big folds and accept that as the hand panned out, I had lost the value of my hand. I had to take these small hits because the occasions where I got my opponent all-in 70-30 or 85-15 compensated me for them.

For a decent amount of time, this counter-strategy seemed to work. It was lucrative and I was making consistent money, maintaining a 25-30% ROI. That was until September when a period of bad variance became 8 weeks of break even results. For two months now, I have been treading water. I had never before had a 2 week period without profit and now its been 4 times that. I have been deeply analysing my game for over a month now and I realise that somewhere along the line, I have thrown the baby out with the bath water. Adaptations to my game were necessary but I didn't need the kind of over-haul that I got it into my mind that I did.

With things not going my way, I have compounded the negative variance by being guilty of both 1 and 2 above. Trying different things with no real consistency of thought, I have been both overly aggressive and too nitty. I have oscillated between different strategies at different times, never making any meaningful adaptation to my game. I have even tried different games, desperately looking for soft spots on the site.

Thus, my advice to Ryan and anyone else out there who is suffering a prolonged downswing is fourfold:

A
Know that every poker player goes through this kind of thing (except PPF!) and when your losing money, it quickly becomes irrelevant to you how much money you have made. A lack of confidence hits you at your core... its akin to the existential condition of 'being-in-the world' (Heidegger), that abyss beneath you, that lack of control over the results of your decisions. So, your first mission is to get confident again... a poker-player without confidence is never going to have the proper disregard for money necessary to make good decisions in marginal spots. This might require a short break from the game, a refresher read of your favourite poker book or just generally re-asserting your importance in the world in general and not just in a poker sphere (family, friends)

B
Do an honest analysis of you game. Watch back a sample of you games from the past month. Post some of the marginal hands on the site and get input from your colleagues/enemies here on the forum. Having coached a few players, I find that the problem almost always lies exactly where they don't think it does - eg. They fixate on how many final table bubbles they're having and believe that it's because they are losing all their crucial flips/70-30s but in reality they have been far too inactive earlier in the tournament during the period where they could have built a stack that would have withstood a badbeat or lost flip. They remember their crucial lost flip only because it knocked them out. Another aspect of this analysis should be a redefinition of attainable goals. IE: If the game has gotten tougher, readjust your target to an attainable ROI and recognise the acceptable swings that may be implied by this lowered figure (you will be making less and the downswings will be more severe from both a money and time standpoint)

C
Be brave and pull the trigger in marginal spots. This obviously ties in with A. Don't wait to have the best hand all the time. If you are playing well in a 1500 chip tournament with 6minute blind levels, you should find yourself getting it in with the worst hand (but with what you perceived as fold equity) an awful lot. Those guaranteed 30-32% hands (the AceX-sooteds) are the hands with which you want to make your moves. If there is good fold-equity, they are perfect because they play great when called... You'll take the beats less hard when your getting it in bad enough to deliver a few of your own!"

Last Friday, I played the 18K Guarantee in Mohegan Sun. Apart from a few 3-table turbo SNGs, this was my second ever live tournament experience (the first being four weeks ago in Barcelona). I hadn't planned to play a tourney that day but a dismal cash-game session the night before (3 nasty beats costing me over $500) meant that I was not in the mood to join Michelle on the $1/$2 tables. When we got to the poker room, the tournament was in the third blind level. Late registration was still available and suffice to say, I didn't need to have my arm twisted.

The tournament was fraught with arguments, mostly involving me. In the first hand that I played, I raised 2.7x from the HJ with the 56 of clubs. The BB called and the flop came J-9-9 with two spades. He checked and I fired a 60% of the pot bet. He called. The turn came the Ace of Clubs, he checked and figuring that it was a good card on which to fire a second bullet, I did. He called. The river came a red 7. He checked and I thought about firing a tiny bet, probably about 20% of the pot, in the hopes that he had Q10. In the end, I figured that it was not a likely enough holding given his turn call and I checked. He looked at me to turn up my hand. I pointed at him - "you first!" - not wishing to turn over my hand. The dealer looked at me and said "show your hand". "It's not my turn. Ask him to show his!" She told me that because he called my turn bet, it was up to me. I told her that she was wrong, at which point other players started giving me hassle. I told them that they should give the right person hassle or shut up. They told me I was wasting time. I told them that I was not the one wasting time and gestured to my opponent. "Fine, whatever..." he groaned, "I play the board". "Wow", I said, flipping up my hand, "I guess we chop then". He turns over Q10 and I erupt. "Why the fuck would you say you're playing the board when you're not!" "Oh, I'm sorry mate", he answered, "I assumed you had some piece". Pissed off that I was conned into showing my hand (and perhaps more annoyed that I didn't mini-fire the river), I mumbled something under my breath about amateur hour.

Two hours passed and having spent most of it rocking the short-stack, picking spots once an orbit to keep myself afloat, I finally hit a mini-rush, won a flip and got my stack up to the chip-average of 45,000. Not long after, a loud-mouthed New Yorker and his mountain of chips was moved to our table and he instantly started to get under everyone's skin, replaying his victorious hands from his previous table and generally bragging about what a great reader of men he is. I raised to 4200 from the HJ with the A5 of Spades and he called me from the button. The flop came 5-8-9 with the 89 of spades. happy to take it down there, I fire out 9500 into the 12K pot. He starts eye-balling me. I know that I'm not folding so I can't resist opening my mouth. "You getting a read on me?", I quipped with a goading smile. He calls and there is just over 30K in the pot. The turn comes a red 10. "All-in", I said and he leapt from his seat. "Count it", he ordered the dealer but before he did, I offered the pertinent information - "it's a little over th...". "Fuck it", he says, interrupting me, "I'm going with my read! I call." I turned over my hand and he whoops for joy. "I knew it", he said and he flipped over A10. "Uuugh, that's a sick call on the turn!", I said. "What are you talking about?", he retorted, "I knew you didn't have much". "Are you kidding me?", I replied, "You had two outs".

The dealer revealed the river - the 10 of spades. "Yeah, baby!", he yelled and clapped his hands right in my face. Unable to resist, I laughed out loud - "I have a flush, you moron". "Wait, what the fuck?", he said, "Aww, you're such a lucky punk!" "Oh, I'm a lucky punk, huh...", I answered, "... because I hit one of my 11 outs after you hit one of your two!" "Shut the fuck up", he screamed. "Why don't you shut the fuck up?", I hollered back. "Why don't you try to make me shut the fuck up?", he yelled. The dealer put his arms up, trying to calm the situation - "Gentlemen, please". "Okay, okay", I said magnanimously, "I have a solution. Why don't we both shut the fuck up but you ship your chips over to me". Needless to say all hell broke loose.

An hour later, we reached the bubble. There were 16 remaining and the chip average was 70K. I had amassed a ridiculous chip-lead with 280K in chips and there were several short-stacks. I had, of course been abusing the pre-bubble period for over twenty minutes, raising any unopened pot that got to me and re-raising the medium-stacks. Now that it was bubble-time, my plan was to be an even bigger maniac. My plan, however, was being thwarted by a 15-man push to pay the bubble-boy. "What's this?", I asked the player nearest me and he told me that everyone was putting $10 into a pot and whoever bubbled got the pot, effectively giving them their money back. "Fuck that!...", I said, "... The bubble is the bubble". The following five minutes went something like this:

Player 1: Ok, everyone get their ten bucks ready, I'll collect.
Me: Eh, I assume this isn't compulsory.
Player 2: It's not in the rules but everyone is doing it.
Me: Man, I can't do that. That would be me just giving money away.
Player 3: Hey, this guy is saying he's not doing it.
Player 4: What the fuck, man. We want to give the person who bubbles something.
Me: Then it's not really a bubble, is it.
Player 1: Hey, look, if you don't have the money, I'll put in for you.
Me: Thank you very much but I'm okay. I don't want to do it.
Player 4: That's bullshit man. It's ten lousy bucks.
Me: I'm sorry but from my point of view, that's a pure donation and I'm not in the habit of just giving money away.
Player 4: You're an asshole, that's what you are.
Me: Hey, there's no need for that. I'm not putting ten in so if I bubble, I don't get the pot. You guys can do what you like.
Player 5 (from the other table): Your being a total asshole dude!
Player 2: That's not right man. What if you were sitting here with 15K in chips.
Me: Then I would probably have an interest in making a deal like this. But there's no way I would expect charity from the big stacks who have no potential upside on something like this.
Player 4: That's just plain wrong. You know you're gonna come 10th now. You won't bubble but you won't go far in this tournament. That's what happens to guys like you.
Player 5: Everyone else here wants to do this and you don't. Doesn't that make it seem like you're the one with the problem.
Me: That's spurious reasoning Sir. I am the very player in this tournament who is damaged by this deal. I have the big stack right now and I obviously want to use the bubble to accumulate chips while people try to survive to the money. Making a deal like this takes the tension out of the bubble because every player now knows they will go home with money. So the last thing I'm going to do is actively participate in such a deal by donating ten bucks to one of the very players I'm trying to apply pressure to.
Player 3 (standing up with his arms aloft): 15 guys are making an agreement and this guy here (pointing at me) is the only person who won't agree. Now I'm not gonna say anything else about this apart from the fact that that says to me that you have a problem.

Applause from players at both tables.

Me: Right that's fucking it. I've been patient but you've taken this way too far. Call the floor.
Dealer: Floor.
Floor: What's the issue here?
Me: Firstly, I am being harassed here by half the people at my table because I'm not willing to make some sort of bubble deal which is not part of the rules. Secondly, this deal has delayed the progress of this tournament. Thirdly, this guy is now inciting an atmosphere of hatred by standing up and making this big grandiose speech.
Player 3: I said I wasn't gonna say anything else about this.
Floor: I did hear him say that Sir.
Me: Yes, but not before he stood up and declared to half the casino that I had a problem.
Player 3: You do have a problem.
Me: See, this is what I'm talking about. If you want to be seen to do your job properly, you should instantly give him a one orbit penalty for the way he's carried on and warn the rest of the table about their language and conduct.
Floor: Gentlemen, I'm not going to give anyone a penalty at this moment but I will if anything further is said.

From then on, everyone shut up and left me alone. I raised relentlessly for the next 15 minutes and finally bubbled the guy with whom I had the earlier argument and told to ship his chips to me. He was pissed off as he had the best of it with A4 against my J2. As the hands were shown down, he said I knew you were full of it. I laughed. "Good read", I said, "Do you think I had a premium hand each of the other 12 times that I raised this hour". I rivered a two and he punched the table in anger. I said nothing more as he skulked away.

It wasn't long before we went final table. I lost a few flips versus short-stacks and then a medium sized pot with QQ versus AQ. By 5-handed play, I was back to an average stack. In the SB, I limped with 46 and the BB called. The flop came 4-5-5 and I bet 16K into the 22K pot. He raised to 55K and I tanked. I didn't think he would raise with a 5 and although my 4 was not a good one, I decided to go all-in for 190K. I thought that there was a decent chance he would fold a 4 if he had one and a decent chance I'd get a chop if he called with one. I figured him for either air or a draw. If he had a draw with overs, say 36 or 67, then my having a 6 in my hand took away some of his outs. He might also fold a draw. As soon as I shipped, he called and I was happy to see that he did indeed have a draw with 67. The turn came an 8 to make him  a straight but all was not lost as it was the 8 of diamonds giving me a flush draw. The river came a diamond and I was up to over 350K.

As soon as we got down to three, there was talk of a chop. I had 290K to my opponent's 340K and 390K. I said that I was happy to do an even chop if they were. The chip-leader looked as though he was going to veto the deal until I suggested us each taking $3200 and playing for $1200 winner-take-all. He said he would agree if it was $3K each and we play for $1800. We all shook hands and continued with the game. I chopped away at a few small pots before the following hand:

With the blinds 10K/20K, I raised to 48K from the button with KK. Both players called and the flop came Q-2-2 with 2 diamonds. The SB lead out for 90K, the BB folded and I smooth called, assuming he has a Q. The turn came a third diamond and he went all-in. I hated that card but I called, figuring he would still go all-in with a queen in his hand. He flipped up A2 and I was out in 3rd. A somewhat disappointing end but all in all, it was another successful live poker tournament under my belt.