DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

TV coverage has finally begun for the Full Tilt Espana Series - Barcelona Event. The tournament was played last October and yours truly made the final table. There will be 5 episodes in total.

Three months ago, Patrick 'Dr Fill Good' McAllister made the FTOPS Main Event final table. Supported by all his Dublin Bellybuster and BadBeatsPoker.net friends, Patrick looked set for a massive life-changing score. 1st prize was a cool $480K and Patrick was sitting pretty on an above average stack. Disaster struck, however, as he got into a big pot early on versus one of the other big stacks. Always aggressive, Patrick fast-played (3-bet) his A10 of clubs, the nut-flush draw and two overs, on a flop of small cards but ran himself headlong in his opponent’s flopped set. Neither the turn nor river bailed him out and he was left with a stack of just 2 blinds. Seemingly dead, Patrick mounted a fantastic comeback over the next 5 hands, tripling and doubling up several times to find himself back in contention with a playable stack of over 20 big blinds. The very next hand, his hopes were dashed as he lost a race that would have put him amongst the leaders and exited in 9th spot for $28K – a tidy score but by no means the ‘big one’ for which he was hoping.

Since then, Patrick has had to endure daily reminders on how he 'over-played' that A10 of clubs. The source of those reminders? Well, me of course. (I did have a decent % of him so a win for him would have been over $20K for me!) Always boxey, I know I would never have stuck my penis in the pot with that much money on the line. Sure, his line would probably have gotten medium pairs to fold. Sure his line is the aggressive line and poker should be played aggressively. I just know that I would have had my eyes glued on the pay-ladder and recognising that each place represented a 'butt-load' (Patrick's phrase) of money, I would have been happy to call the raise to hit my draw and shut-down on the turn if I missed, leaving me an average stack with which to work.

That's one of the main differences between Patrick and I. When it comes to big paydays, it's not that I play scared but I am more conservative as I place a huge importance on the subjective value of the money. Moving up into the top6 would have given him the type of bankroll boost that would allow a player of his skill to become wealthier in a more reliable fashion. In the capital-sensitive game that is poker, more money equals bigger buy-ins and thus more opportunities to increase one's net-worth. However, Patrick saw the opportunity to apply pressure on his opponent and potentially become the chipleader, from where he could secure a top3 finish and some serious money. I admire his courage but I still believed a daily skype-reminder of how he 'blew it wih a10' was necessary.
On February 14th last, Patrick played Event #8 of the most recent FTOPS. Thirteen hours into that indevour, he emerged as victor, $136K richer, claiming it to be the 2nd best Valentines Day ever. (The 1st must have been something/someone really special!) It was the effort of a consummate professional. He got chips early and spent much of the tourney in the Top20. After the bubble burst, he faded back into the pack but always maintained an average stack. With 300 left, he made his move back up the leaderboard as a few big hands held. With 100 left he lost some crucial showdowns and a big coin-flip. He had half the chip average and for the first time in the tournament was ‘All-In-Or-Fold’. Picking his spots well, he kept himself above water for several orbits before getting it in with a dominant Ace and holding. He doubled again an orbit later as his QQ held versus AK all-in pre-flop.

By 50 remaining, he had manoeuvered him self into the Top10. The beneficiary of a huge set-up, his Aces held versus Kings in a pot with one of the other big stacks. Patrick had the chip-leader and he never gave it up. Avoiding showdowns where possible, he picked on the medium stacks and chipped up relatively risk-free. By Final Table time, he held a commanding chip lead and was not about to lose momentum. Raising and 3-betting, he applied constant pressure to his opponents, keenly aware of the leverage bet in every hand. While they jostled for position and an extra place up the money ladder, Patrick’s focus, as always, was firmly on 1st place and the FTOPS jersey. He rode his luck 4-handed as his 77 overcame the JJ of his opponent. With two-thirds of the chips in play, he kept his foot on the gas and when his K10 overcame A5, he was heads-up with Kakafoni. The two made a sporting deal and played on for $8K and the jersey. Patrick had 80% of the chips and closed out the victory within 10 hands.

Since the win, Patrick has enjoyed some positive press. Fellow Dublin Bellybuster Michael Craig has penned a nice article on him in the Full Tilt Poker Blog:

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/poker-blog/2010/02/970-ftops-recap-two-of-the-good-guys-won.php

He has also enjoyed the plaudits of his peers on several threads on BadBeatsPoker.net, he is the subject of this blog (massive readership!) and I have even promised to stop randomly texting him with the words 'Ace Ten'.

Well done pal - it is a tremendous achievement you deserve your piece of the spot light!

Apologies firstly for how few and far between blog entries have been recently. Time to write them has been scarce as I have been rushing to get everything done before I make my way back the US next week. Over the past 5 weeks, I have been to the hospital 4 times (stomach/digestion issues), I have had my kitchen/livingroom completely re-modelled and refurbished, I have put in decent hours through SNGMentors with my two students Sibist and Drk Confdant, I have got the wheels in motion for a settlement in a longstanding court-case and I have begun writing a one-act play entitled 'Happier Days', all while still maintaining a 40-hour poker playing week. January was nothing special as I grinded out some average money in the 45 and 90mans (2nd place in the BadBeatsPoker.net $48 90man challenge with an ROI over 100%), made a couple of K playing cap-limit cash ($2/$4, $3/$6 and a little $5/$10) and dumped over 1K in MTTS. My MTT drought refuses to end and I am now looking at a $7K+ downswing in that department. Blechhh!

It should be an exciting few months in Connecticut. Michelle and I have opened a Kids Consignment Store in West Hartford and (now that the manual labour phase is over,) I am keen to get back there to help out. It's a bit of a Dublin Bellybuster production actually as the third member of our 'Max & Lily's Closet' team is Patrick 'Dr Fill Good' McAllister. We opened our doors last Monday to take in consignments and we hope to open for business proper by the first week of March. The wager here is that West Hartford, a pretty posh suburb in a pretty posh state, is sufficiently affected by the recession to make it more open-minded to what is already a billion dollar industry in America. Rents have come way down, making a low-yield business model viable in this affluent area. The average Joe is tightening his belt and even the more well-off Mums and Dads are looking to save a buck where they can. Also, a culture shift is apparent in the US with the 'green' message getting more airtime and 'green' businesses rightly being supported by the people. Max & Lily's Closet is the brainchild of Michelle who has, ever since I first met her, dreamed of bringing an environmentally conscious Consignment Store to her neighbourhood. Now, thanks to a good year on the green baize for Patrick and I, the investment needed is finally able to match the will.

Firstly, I am in no way claiming to be the best 45man SNG Player in the World so I am not using by blog to canvass for votes. I would, however, like to direct any players out there who follow the circuit to a little poll that is currently on the BadBeatsPoker.net site.

http://www.badbeatspoker.net/forum/online-sngs/7174-who-top-10-45-man-sng-players-you-decide-round-1-a.html

In the poll, I have listed 30+ nominees who might make a person's Top10 list. On Wednesday night, the votes will be counted and the 15 players with the most votes will make it through to Round 2 where people will cast again for their Top10 based on the refined list.

The nominees are:

AHANNAHA
With over $27K in profit and a 16% ROI, AHANNAHA's most impressive statistic is his $10 per game average profit on an average buy-in of a whopping $52!

allinfriend
9400 games and $55K mean that no matter how much you hate this guy (and I really really hate him!), you cannot deny him a place in the Top30. An ordinary 16% ROI, however, might cost him a spot in the top 10.

ava lou120808
A killer at the $24 level, ava lou120808 is tied for 5th on the Average ROI list with an obscene 35%. With $12 profit per game and over $36K in total profits, he is one to consider!

bethwolf22
Number 8 on the Total Profit List with almost $50K, bethwolf22 is a grinder extraordinaire. An Average ROI of just 15% may appear a little small but bethwolf22 has been a volume-beast (7500 games) and a formidable regular since the inception of these games in 2007.

Blck Jck
3500 games with a $12 average profit speaks for itself. Blck Jck is a player of the highest calibre. Number 8 on the Ave ROI List, his 30% is the statistic that makes him a stand-out nominee.

break_evan
Is break_evan the best SNG grinder in Germany? Fellow nominee AHANNAHA might disagree but without a shadow of a doubt, he is one of the hardest working. His $10 stats ($16K in profit) are not included in his Total Profit of $37500, making an even more compelling case for this 22% ROI phenom.

Cambo71
Priding himself on his ability to make huge folds, this 'ICM-whore' has only played 1200 games. So why the hell does he make this list, you say? Try a jaw-dropping 35% ROI (5th on the Ave ROI List) at an Average Buy-in of $41. Cambo71 may only have $20K in Total Profit (and a small penis) but don't be surprised if this time next year, that figure is quadrupled (meaning he can afford a penile extension). Can the only non-shark-starred player on the list get your vote?

cardsfan04
Pokerpwnage's tutor supreme ain't too shabby on the felt neither! Over $19K in just 1900 games and a 16% ROI playing mostly $69ers gives food for thought to the voting public!

Chipless Wonder
BBP's Commander-in-Chief has made $37K with an Average ROI of 25% at an Average Buy-In of a healthy $53. $14 per game makes him a worthy candidate (and I'm not just saying that coz he told me if I didn't he would freeze my moderator privileges)

Dr Fill Good
Probably a misprint, I have no idea what this Canadian nit-wit is doing on the list. Since when does $52K (6th on the Total Profit List) and a 23% ROI over 6500 games get you notoriety?

dinkydoofus
3300 games with an ROI of 33%, dinkydoofus is an MTT beast these days but before he went on to bigger and better things he made $33K in the 45mans.

FcukYourLuck
This mystery-man from Russia has a maniacal case of split personality disorder but what's a Top-anything list without including one crazyman. A hefty amount of digging reveals that he (good night baby/paris_hilton 81/unemployed 23/COCA-COLA789/AmrcnDrm/the perfection) has played 3000 games with a 25% ROI for a Total Profit of $56K.

ferdilicious
The new kid on the block, ferdilicious has a 10% ROI over 4700 games. However, noteworthy is the fact that his $30,000 profit has all come in the past 6 months. With machine-like efficiency, this uber-grinder is certainly the best SNG player in his native Romania but is in your overall Top10?

IDropDeuces
Despite a Cambo-esque 1200 games, IDropDeuces has somehow made $35000. A 38% ROI and Average Profit of $28 demonstrate super-human abilities. If this guy ever decides to put in the work, God help us all!

ImNotHereToBrag
A 24% ROI playing almost exclusively $69ers means you cannot fail to take notice of ImNotHereToBrag. Is $30K Total Profit and an Average Profit of $17 per game (6th on the Ave Profit List) enough to get your vote?

J4bberW0cky
J4bberW0cky doesn't really play $69 games and on that subject I have two words followed by an exclamation mark: THANK FUCK! A 48% ROI (1st by miles!) doesn't seem sustainable in this game format yet J4bberw0cky has sustained it over 2600 games. $28K Total Profit (almost every penny has been spent on weed) is a wee bit on the modest side there is nothing modest about this poker behemoth.

kauch12
A consistent performer at the $24 level, kauch12 may not be the most recognisable name on the circuit but he has quietly amassed $45K over 4500 games, boasting an impressive 25% ROI.

kennl
Many people's favourite, kennl had a ridiculously successful 2009. While his hundreds of thousands of MTT earnings don't count for this list, they will surely influence the voters. $42K in 10K games with an ROI of 16%, kennl has played relatively few $69ers but only Rounder63 has played more $24s!

KevinBlackwood
Making the Top 10 in both the Average Profit and Total Profit categories, KevinBlackwood is a poker cognoscenti. Playing only $69 games, he has a 19% ROI and over $45K in Total Profit.

king mullet
A top $69 player, king mullet has a 16% ROI and $35,000 Profit after 3500 games.

KVD79
KVD79 had a great 2009 on the $69 circuit, making a whopping $45K in just 2300 games at a Average Profit of $19 per game (5th on the Ave Profit List). This guy is one of the most dangerous players on the list!

LAPPIN
3rd on the all-time money list with $83K, this sexy Irish Devil has a 27% Average ROI (10th on the Ave ROI List). With 8750 games, LAPPIN has been a (handsome) fixture on the circuit since these games came into being.

Lary18thS
With an exceptional ROI of 33%, Lary18thS has forced his way into the reckoning despite a modest 1500 games. $19K Total Profit and a $12 Average Profit make him one of the most dangerous up 'n' comers!

muoi1
2nd only to Rounder63 in the volume stakes, muoi1 has a 12% ROI and $44K after a mind-blowing 12,000 games.

Nesby
A 41% ROI is ridiculous. It's J4bberw0cky-ridiculous. But this guy has a 41% ROI playing only $69 games. That puts him in a category of his own. Sure, he has only played a relatively small volume and sure, he is not a mega-multi-tabler but $55K in 1750 games and an Average Profit of $31 per game is abusive!

PimpinDonks
The Uncrowned King of 45-mans, this guy might not get knocked off the top-spot! Does he put in volume? 11K games says yes he does. Does he have a solid ROI? 25% says he's not too shabby in that category either. Has he made money? $140K in Total Profit says he is the most profitable guy on the circuit by a long long way!

PureProfitFour
4th on the over-all profit list, PPF is a hyper-aggro poker phenom. Juggling between SNGs and MTTs, he has made a small fortune in recent years. $58K in 4300 45mans with an ROI of 20% and an average of $14 per game demonstrate how he has put his terrorising brand of LAG-monstery to good use in that format too!

Rounder63
What can I say about Rounder63... that he hasn't already said about himself... over and over and over again in countless chatboxes? Though his utter domination of this format has faded somewhat in recent months, you count this man out at your peril. His stats speak for themselves... 16,000 games, 18% ROI, $107K Profit

SteveTheWebGuy
A superb $69 grinder, SteveTheWebGuy has played 4000 games and has made almost $50K (Number 7 on the Total Profit List). With a 17% ROI, he has made $13 per game.

Thanks4CominOut
A modest 13% is overcome somewhat by a tremendous commitment to volume by Thanks4CominOut. With 4400 games and $35,000 Total profit, how could he not earn a nomination?

throwinphins
Another $69 beast who has made a ton of money despite minimal volume, throwinphins accrued $38K last year in just 1800 games with a massive $21 per game (4th in the Average Profit List). A 28% ROI playing exclusively $69 games is a feat worthy of nomination. Does he get your vote?

Vinkyy
Yet another cold-blooded killer who plies the majority of his trade at the $69 level, Vinkyy's 38% ROI (4th in Ave ROI List) is his biggest claim to fame. It's not his only one, however, as a $22 Average Profit (3rd in the Ave Profit List) and Total Profit of $36K in just 1700 games is just as little bit special!

WeirdThing
A hardcore regular, WeirdThing has played 6000 games and amassed $47K in Total Profits (9th on the Total Profit List). A 15% ROI at an Average Buy-In of $46 makes him a contender.

The 45-player game has been the bread 'n' butter of many professional poker players for the past 3 years. It offers a great 'low variance' way to build up your bankroll - something that was perhaps not available to a previous generation of poker player. The above players are the best players in this game and they are all playing at a level that far exceeds the modest stakes at which they play and I fully believe that there are big careers ahead of many of them. So who stands out as the best of the best?

Without doubt, it's a tougher game out there right now. Four months ago, I told several of my poker-buddies that we were in for a cold spell. Some of them agreed with me and others disagreed or at least downplayed the significance of the factors which I was illuminating. I argued that online poker had remained relatively untouched by the global recession. The reasons for this I surmised were the following:

1. The Gambling Industry is historically recession-proof (much like the booze industry and drug-trade).
2. Money in the system takes time to be redistributed from the weak to the strong players.
3. Full Tilt, Pokerstars et al were aggressively attacking new markets (Russia, South America, Continental and Eastern Europe), compensating for the reduction in US numbers.
4. Live players were moving into the online arena in an effort to reduce their overheads.

I predicted, however, that this wouldn't continue. My reasons were the following:

1. People may continue to gamble when times are tough but if they are losers, then there inevitably comes a point where they can no longer access (as much) money to wager.
2. Money in the system will eventually reside in the accounts of strong players and the accounts of weak players may not be reloaded (the inability to use one's US credit card to deposit funds onto the sites making life difficult for a would-be depositor).
3. While generally weaker in standard, many of the live players moving into the online arena are damn good and will quickly adjust to the nuances of online play.

I claimed that while the recession may have a delayed impact, it will impact us eventually. And add to the above reasons some other non-recession related factors and the game is destined to get tougher.

4. The sheer volume of information out there - instructional videos, poker magazines and books, forums, training sites - means that the overall standard has risen and continues to rise sharply.
5. At the upper end, software has helped good players make even better decisions as statistical data can inform marginal decisions, increasing the probability that will be made correctly.

Four months later and online poker is undeniably tougher. While this is great for the game - tough competition forces you to adapt, improve, deepen your thought process and bring a greater meta-game dimension to your play - it's not great for my bank balance. Lowering one's expectations (a lower ROI %) means accepting bigger swings, less overall profit and in some cases, swallowing your pride and dropping down a stake-level. One glance at the $69 45-mans on Full Tilt shows that this has occurred at the top level. Beasts like Danny Ryan (THE__D__RY) and Christian Iacobelis (da_professional) have started playing these games regularly. One glance at the $24 45-mans shows that guys who used to grind the $69ers have already dropped back down (presumably finding the $69ers too tough these days). However, the most damning evidence of what I am saying can be retrieved with a few Sharkscope searches. Do a $69 45-man search on the top 20 guys at this stake level in 2009 and take a look at their graphs. With 17 of the 20, you will discover the same anomaly - a sharp leveling off over the past 3 months as their ROIs have been halved, their percentages reduced to the low teens and, in some cases, single figures.

Despite all of this, I am optimistic for 2010. I am setting my goals realistically and would be very happy with making as much online profit as I did last year. The recession may end some time this year and if/when it does, I have no doubt that poker numbers will boom again. If the UIGEA gets thrown out, they will boom even harder. Poker is a great game and it is here to stay. Poker players might just have to tighten their belts for a little while.

Last Sunday, I was approached by a man who I both know by reputation and as a friend of a friend. Joe Attila Tosaky (better known as draqq in the online poker world) is a successful poker player in both the live and online arena. He has also made a killing over the past few years staking players through the parttimepoker.com website. A little over a year ago, he extended his interests beyond merely staking players. He prudently determined that there was an untapped niche in the market. What was it? The synergy of staking and coaching. Many sites offered training and tuition to poker players (Cardrunners, Stox, Pokerpwnage, etc) and Parttimepoker.com had a strangle-hold over the staking market. There was no-one, however, combining both of these areas, offering mentoring and backing to up-and-coming players, looking to make a career in poker.

And so, 'SNG Mentors' was born, a website dedicated to the instruction and financial support of poker players - and with it, an opportunity for young talented amateurs to develop their skills and define thier style with the help of seasoned professionals and without the risk of going broke. With their primary focus on the SNGs on Pokerstars, the experts in their ranks include Vers, Shen888, Manhat10ite, Jontsef, Whoopsy_Dazy, Wutank, Rat Sauce 89 and of course Draqq himself. Combined, these 8 players have almost half a million dollars in Pokerstars SNG earnings.

One year in, Draqq and his co-investors are looking to extend their operation. The Full Tilt market is their target and with that in mind, they are adding Full Tilt based pros to their coaching staff. I welcomed Draqq's offer to join his troupe and my first student is the talented Danish SNG grinder, Rasmus 'Sibist' Sibast. As the weeks and months go by, I expect to take several other students under my wing. Using Hand History Analysis and any other teaching tools at my disposal, my distinctly hermeneutic approach to coaching will allow players to grow and evolve from within their existing games, developing a style with which they are comfortable. Private one2one coaching with me will be advertised on the site but I hope to put in 30-40 hours a month with the students of SNG mentors, adding to the success of this fine enterprise.