Here's one for the people who don't know anything/give a damn about poker...
Every year for the past ten, my good friend Leslie and I have had a wager on the Oscar results. We're both cinephiles and generally see everything worth seeing every year. He consistently had the better of me throughout our teens as he subscribed to a dozen different film magazines. They were of particular assistance to him when he made his picks for the more obscure categories. In 2001, I insisted that something needed to be done to remove his obvious edge and from then onward, we have only made choices on the main categories.
The following is a list of my official picks (the ones I think 'will' win) as well as several digressions as I mention the ones I think should win, should have been nominated, should not win and should not have been nominated:
BEST PICTURE
'Slumdog Millionaire' will win but of those nominated, my fave was 'Frost/Nixon'. Of the others, I thought 'The Reader' was very good, 'Milk' was decent and 'Benjamin Button' was a pile of wank. The one shameful omission from those nominated is 'The Wrestler' which would get my vote as movie of the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle will take it down as the Best Director and Best Film Oscars generally go to the same movie. Again, of those nominated, Ron Howard would get my vote but Darren Aronofsky should be the winner.
BEST ACTOR
A really strong category this year but Mickey Rourke is untouchable and he deserves to be. You could stick your house on him. Frank Langella would have a great chance in any other year for what was an incredible performance as Richard Nixon. Richard Jenkins would be my next favourite for his performance is the delightful indi-film 'The Visitor'. Sean Penn was solid in 'Milk' and if there is to be an upset, he would be the one to nick it from Rourke. The inclusion of Brad Pitt in this category is laughable and if I had my way, I would have given the 5th nomination to Josh Brolin for the overlooked 'W'.
BEST ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie's performance in 'Changeling' might take it down in a different year but the Oscar will go to Kate Winslet for her remarkable performance in 'The Reader'. Meryl Streep gives a powerhouse performance in 'Doubt' and Anne Hathaway is delightful in the surprisingly excellent 'Rachel Getting Married'. I must confess that I didn't see 'Frozen River' so cannot comment on Melissa Leo.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is the weirdest bunch of nominations in Oscar history. Heath Ledger (the bookies make him a ridiculous 50-1) will win because he's dead and the Academy feel the need to do weird shit like that to honour a dead actor's work. Don't get me wrong, he was a brilliant Joker but mannered/stylised performances that are in essence 'over-acted' such not be honoured by the Academy (maybe the MTV Movie Awards but not the Oscars!). Michael Shannon in 'Revolutionary Road' is similarly over-the-top - again not a bad performance, just not Oscar-worthy. Josh Brolin turned in a blah performance in 'Milk' and Robert Downey Junior's nomination for Tropic Thunder is perhaps the most bizarre. In fact, the only worthy nominee is Philip Seymour Hoffman for 'Doubt' but he has no chance because he churns out performances of this calibre so often these days that no-one will consider this effort remarkable by his standards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The buzz suggests that Penelope Cruz won't be denied so I'll have to make her my prediction. She is fantastic in the messy but not altogether bad Woody Allen film 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'. Cruz is one of the best actresses in the world when she's working in her native language and deserves the recognition. Marissa Tomei is perfectly fine in 'The Wrestler' but she doesn't have a great deal to do. Taraji Henson is nice in 'Benjamin Button' but nothing outstanding. Amy Adams turns in a pleasant effort in 'Doubt'. However, in what is truly the greatest scene of the year and her only scene in the film, Viola Davis deserves to give Cruz a run for her money for her extraordinary 8 minutes in 'Doubt'.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I have only seen three of the five movies in this category but with the utmost respect to 'Frozen River' and 'Happy-Go-Lucky', they are the three that are believed to be in the running. Milk's Dustin Lance Black is the favourite and probable winner, Wall-E's writing trio of Stanton, Docter and Reardon are most deserving but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the Oscar will go to Irishman Martin McDonagh for 'In Bruges'. For the record, I thoroughly disliked 'In Bruges' and in particular, I thought the writing was clumsy and unfunny. Jokes about midgets, hookers, fat americans and the mentally retarded whiffs of lazy writing but for some reason, people have lapped it up. It shouldn't win. It shouldn't even have gotten nominated. But it will win and people will hail Martin McDonagh a genius.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
'Slumdog Millionaire''s Simon Beaufoy will win this. Again favourable mentions should go to Peter Morgan for 'Frost/Nixon', David Hare for 'The Reader' and JP Shanley for 'Doubt'.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
'Slumdog' will win but might get a run for its money by 'Benjamin Button'.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
'Wall-E' is the front-runner and deserves to be.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
'Waltz with Bashir' is an incredibly original piece of work - both an animated documentary chronicling the horrors of the Lebanon War and a psychoanalysis of its author, a crusade to rediscover his repressed memories. While I haven't seen any of the others, it would be a tough one to beat.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
I only saw 'Man On Wire' and it was brilliant so I'll go for that!
BEST SONG
'Slumdog' is up for two of the three in this category. It will win for the super-catchy 'Jai Ho' but where the fuck is Bruce Springstein's 'The Wrestler'?
The 81st Annual Academy Awards are this Sunday, February 22nd at 8pm ET or 1am on Monday morning for us Paddies. They will be hosted by Hugh Jackman with the help of some comic material prepared by Ricky Gervais.
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