DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

Without doubt, it's a tougher game out there right now. Four months ago, I told several of my poker-buddies that we were in for a cold spell. Some of them agreed with me and others disagreed or at least downplayed the significance of the factors which I was illuminating. I argued that online poker had remained relatively untouched by the global recession. The reasons for this I surmised were the following:

1. The Gambling Industry is historically recession-proof (much like the booze industry and drug-trade).
2. Money in the system takes time to be redistributed from the weak to the strong players.
3. Full Tilt, Pokerstars et al were aggressively attacking new markets (Russia, South America, Continental and Eastern Europe), compensating for the reduction in US numbers.
4. Live players were moving into the online arena in an effort to reduce their overheads.

I predicted, however, that this wouldn't continue. My reasons were the following:

1. People may continue to gamble when times are tough but if they are losers, then there inevitably comes a point where they can no longer access (as much) money to wager.
2. Money in the system will eventually reside in the accounts of strong players and the accounts of weak players may not be reloaded (the inability to use one's US credit card to deposit funds onto the sites making life difficult for a would-be depositor).
3. While generally weaker in standard, many of the live players moving into the online arena are damn good and will quickly adjust to the nuances of online play.

I claimed that while the recession may have a delayed impact, it will impact us eventually. And add to the above reasons some other non-recession related factors and the game is destined to get tougher.

4. The sheer volume of information out there - instructional videos, poker magazines and books, forums, training sites - means that the overall standard has risen and continues to rise sharply.
5. At the upper end, software has helped good players make even better decisions as statistical data can inform marginal decisions, increasing the probability that will be made correctly.

Four months later and online poker is undeniably tougher. While this is great for the game - tough competition forces you to adapt, improve, deepen your thought process and bring a greater meta-game dimension to your play - it's not great for my bank balance. Lowering one's expectations (a lower ROI %) means accepting bigger swings, less overall profit and in some cases, swallowing your pride and dropping down a stake-level. One glance at the $69 45-mans on Full Tilt shows that this has occurred at the top level. Beasts like Danny Ryan (THE__D__RY) and Christian Iacobelis (da_professional) have started playing these games regularly. One glance at the $24 45-mans shows that guys who used to grind the $69ers have already dropped back down (presumably finding the $69ers too tough these days). However, the most damning evidence of what I am saying can be retrieved with a few Sharkscope searches. Do a $69 45-man search on the top 20 guys at this stake level in 2009 and take a look at their graphs. With 17 of the 20, you will discover the same anomaly - a sharp leveling off over the past 3 months as their ROIs have been halved, their percentages reduced to the low teens and, in some cases, single figures.

Despite all of this, I am optimistic for 2010. I am setting my goals realistically and would be very happy with making as much online profit as I did last year. The recession may end some time this year and if/when it does, I have no doubt that poker numbers will boom again. If the UIGEA gets thrown out, they will boom even harder. Poker is a great game and it is here to stay. Poker players might just have to tighten their belts for a little while.