DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

I watched the General Election leader's debate last night and drew the following worrying conclusions.

1. The person who will be Taioseach is a Palinesque public relations fiasco waiting to happen and his party is all slogans and no substance.
2. The person who clearly had the most to gain and lose was a toned-down, insipid reflection of himself.
3. The person who impressed me most is the leader of a party I abhor and served for 14 years in the governments that helped to bring about Ireland's economic collapse.
4. The public are incapable of judging a debate.

Enda Kenny was the tight passive amateur - he tried to convey a strong image by staying silent, not playing too many hands, sticking to script and simplifying the game by raising only his premium holdings but, in actuality, he had no idea how to play and limped weakly into hands only to get himself lost in the minefield of post-flop play.

Eamon Gilmore was the tight aggressive semi-pro - he understands the game pretty well and at lower stakes, he maintains a strong image, sees his opponents weaknesses and times his aggression well. However, he found himself in a big boy's game and, under pressure, he tightened up, allowing himself to be exploited by the laggy maniac while at the same time not exploiting the weak player on his right.

Micheal Martin was the fearless, tenacious loose aggressive pro who adopted the tactic of short-stack attack. He knows he has played poorly of late but he has experience on his side and a much greater grasp of the fundamentals. Responding to a recent downswing and feeling like he has nothing to lose, he came out all guns blazing, raising and re-raising his opponents into a state of paralysis, exposing their fundamental impotence when asked tough questions and put under real pressure.

The average Joe is results-oriented and thus, misinterprets and misapprehends what they are watching. They think the amateur knows what he is doing because they mistake his silence for composure, his suit for substance, his chiplead for skill. And much like Chris Moneymaker, Enda Kenny is going to donk his way to victory. The amateur is going to win this one but not because he is good but because he is lucky and those around him either don't have enough chips or are very bad.

And like Chris Moneymaker, it won't be long before he gives back his winnings and is exposed for the donkey that he really is.