DUBLIN BELLYBUSTERS

Apologies firstly for how few and far between blog entries have been recently. Time to write them has been scarce as I have been rushing to get everything done before I make my way back the US next week. Over the past 5 weeks, I have been to the hospital 4 times (stomach/digestion issues), I have had my kitchen/livingroom completely re-modelled and refurbished, I have put in decent hours through SNGMentors with my two students Sibist and Drk Confdant, I have got the wheels in motion for a settlement in a longstanding court-case and I have begun writing a one-act play entitled 'Happier Days', all while still maintaining a 40-hour poker playing week. January was nothing special as I grinded out some average money in the 45 and 90mans (2nd place in the BadBeatsPoker.net $48 90man challenge with an ROI over 100%), made a couple of K playing cap-limit cash ($2/$4, $3/$6 and a little $5/$10) and dumped over 1K in MTTS. My MTT drought refuses to end and I am now looking at a $7K+ downswing in that department. Blechhh!

It should be an exciting few months in Connecticut. Michelle and I have opened a Kids Consignment Store in West Hartford and (now that the manual labour phase is over,) I am keen to get back there to help out. It's a bit of a Dublin Bellybuster production actually as the third member of our 'Max & Lily's Closet' team is Patrick 'Dr Fill Good' McAllister. We opened our doors last Monday to take in consignments and we hope to open for business proper by the first week of March. The wager here is that West Hartford, a pretty posh suburb in a pretty posh state, is sufficiently affected by the recession to make it more open-minded to what is already a billion dollar industry in America. Rents have come way down, making a low-yield business model viable in this affluent area. The average Joe is tightening his belt and even the more well-off Mums and Dads are looking to save a buck where they can. Also, a culture shift is apparent in the US with the 'green' message getting more airtime and 'green' businesses rightly being supported by the people. Max & Lily's Closet is the brainchild of Michelle who has, ever since I first met her, dreamed of bringing an environmentally conscious Consignment Store to her neighbourhood. Now, thanks to a good year on the green baize for Patrick and I, the investment needed is finally able to match the will.

Firstly, I am in no way claiming to be the best 45man SNG Player in the World so I am not using by blog to canvass for votes. I would, however, like to direct any players out there who follow the circuit to a little poll that is currently on the BadBeatsPoker.net site.

http://www.badbeatspoker.net/forum/online-sngs/7174-who-top-10-45-man-sng-players-you-decide-round-1-a.html

In the poll, I have listed 30+ nominees who might make a person's Top10 list. On Wednesday night, the votes will be counted and the 15 players with the most votes will make it through to Round 2 where people will cast again for their Top10 based on the refined list.

The nominees are:

AHANNAHA
With over $27K in profit and a 16% ROI, AHANNAHA's most impressive statistic is his $10 per game average profit on an average buy-in of a whopping $52!

allinfriend
9400 games and $55K mean that no matter how much you hate this guy (and I really really hate him!), you cannot deny him a place in the Top30. An ordinary 16% ROI, however, might cost him a spot in the top 10.

ava lou120808
A killer at the $24 level, ava lou120808 is tied for 5th on the Average ROI list with an obscene 35%. With $12 profit per game and over $36K in total profits, he is one to consider!

bethwolf22
Number 8 on the Total Profit List with almost $50K, bethwolf22 is a grinder extraordinaire. An Average ROI of just 15% may appear a little small but bethwolf22 has been a volume-beast (7500 games) and a formidable regular since the inception of these games in 2007.

Blck Jck
3500 games with a $12 average profit speaks for itself. Blck Jck is a player of the highest calibre. Number 8 on the Ave ROI List, his 30% is the statistic that makes him a stand-out nominee.

break_evan
Is break_evan the best SNG grinder in Germany? Fellow nominee AHANNAHA might disagree but without a shadow of a doubt, he is one of the hardest working. His $10 stats ($16K in profit) are not included in his Total Profit of $37500, making an even more compelling case for this 22% ROI phenom.

Cambo71
Priding himself on his ability to make huge folds, this 'ICM-whore' has only played 1200 games. So why the hell does he make this list, you say? Try a jaw-dropping 35% ROI (5th on the Ave ROI List) at an Average Buy-in of $41. Cambo71 may only have $20K in Total Profit (and a small penis) but don't be surprised if this time next year, that figure is quadrupled (meaning he can afford a penile extension). Can the only non-shark-starred player on the list get your vote?

cardsfan04
Pokerpwnage's tutor supreme ain't too shabby on the felt neither! Over $19K in just 1900 games and a 16% ROI playing mostly $69ers gives food for thought to the voting public!

Chipless Wonder
BBP's Commander-in-Chief has made $37K with an Average ROI of 25% at an Average Buy-In of a healthy $53. $14 per game makes him a worthy candidate (and I'm not just saying that coz he told me if I didn't he would freeze my moderator privileges)

Dr Fill Good
Probably a misprint, I have no idea what this Canadian nit-wit is doing on the list. Since when does $52K (6th on the Total Profit List) and a 23% ROI over 6500 games get you notoriety?

dinkydoofus
3300 games with an ROI of 33%, dinkydoofus is an MTT beast these days but before he went on to bigger and better things he made $33K in the 45mans.

FcukYourLuck
This mystery-man from Russia has a maniacal case of split personality disorder but what's a Top-anything list without including one crazyman. A hefty amount of digging reveals that he (good night baby/paris_hilton 81/unemployed 23/COCA-COLA789/AmrcnDrm/the perfection) has played 3000 games with a 25% ROI for a Total Profit of $56K.

ferdilicious
The new kid on the block, ferdilicious has a 10% ROI over 4700 games. However, noteworthy is the fact that his $30,000 profit has all come in the past 6 months. With machine-like efficiency, this uber-grinder is certainly the best SNG player in his native Romania but is in your overall Top10?

IDropDeuces
Despite a Cambo-esque 1200 games, IDropDeuces has somehow made $35000. A 38% ROI and Average Profit of $28 demonstrate super-human abilities. If this guy ever decides to put in the work, God help us all!

ImNotHereToBrag
A 24% ROI playing almost exclusively $69ers means you cannot fail to take notice of ImNotHereToBrag. Is $30K Total Profit and an Average Profit of $17 per game (6th on the Ave Profit List) enough to get your vote?

J4bberW0cky
J4bberW0cky doesn't really play $69 games and on that subject I have two words followed by an exclamation mark: THANK FUCK! A 48% ROI (1st by miles!) doesn't seem sustainable in this game format yet J4bberw0cky has sustained it over 2600 games. $28K Total Profit (almost every penny has been spent on weed) is a wee bit on the modest side there is nothing modest about this poker behemoth.

kauch12
A consistent performer at the $24 level, kauch12 may not be the most recognisable name on the circuit but he has quietly amassed $45K over 4500 games, boasting an impressive 25% ROI.

kennl
Many people's favourite, kennl had a ridiculously successful 2009. While his hundreds of thousands of MTT earnings don't count for this list, they will surely influence the voters. $42K in 10K games with an ROI of 16%, kennl has played relatively few $69ers but only Rounder63 has played more $24s!

KevinBlackwood
Making the Top 10 in both the Average Profit and Total Profit categories, KevinBlackwood is a poker cognoscenti. Playing only $69 games, he has a 19% ROI and over $45K in Total Profit.

king mullet
A top $69 player, king mullet has a 16% ROI and $35,000 Profit after 3500 games.

KVD79
KVD79 had a great 2009 on the $69 circuit, making a whopping $45K in just 2300 games at a Average Profit of $19 per game (5th on the Ave Profit List). This guy is one of the most dangerous players on the list!

LAPPIN
3rd on the all-time money list with $83K, this sexy Irish Devil has a 27% Average ROI (10th on the Ave ROI List). With 8750 games, LAPPIN has been a (handsome) fixture on the circuit since these games came into being.

Lary18thS
With an exceptional ROI of 33%, Lary18thS has forced his way into the reckoning despite a modest 1500 games. $19K Total Profit and a $12 Average Profit make him one of the most dangerous up 'n' comers!

muoi1
2nd only to Rounder63 in the volume stakes, muoi1 has a 12% ROI and $44K after a mind-blowing 12,000 games.

Nesby
A 41% ROI is ridiculous. It's J4bberw0cky-ridiculous. But this guy has a 41% ROI playing only $69 games. That puts him in a category of his own. Sure, he has only played a relatively small volume and sure, he is not a mega-multi-tabler but $55K in 1750 games and an Average Profit of $31 per game is abusive!

PimpinDonks
The Uncrowned King of 45-mans, this guy might not get knocked off the top-spot! Does he put in volume? 11K games says yes he does. Does he have a solid ROI? 25% says he's not too shabby in that category either. Has he made money? $140K in Total Profit says he is the most profitable guy on the circuit by a long long way!

PureProfitFour
4th on the over-all profit list, PPF is a hyper-aggro poker phenom. Juggling between SNGs and MTTs, he has made a small fortune in recent years. $58K in 4300 45mans with an ROI of 20% and an average of $14 per game demonstrate how he has put his terrorising brand of LAG-monstery to good use in that format too!

Rounder63
What can I say about Rounder63... that he hasn't already said about himself... over and over and over again in countless chatboxes? Though his utter domination of this format has faded somewhat in recent months, you count this man out at your peril. His stats speak for themselves... 16,000 games, 18% ROI, $107K Profit

SteveTheWebGuy
A superb $69 grinder, SteveTheWebGuy has played 4000 games and has made almost $50K (Number 7 on the Total Profit List). With a 17% ROI, he has made $13 per game.

Thanks4CominOut
A modest 13% is overcome somewhat by a tremendous commitment to volume by Thanks4CominOut. With 4400 games and $35,000 Total profit, how could he not earn a nomination?

throwinphins
Another $69 beast who has made a ton of money despite minimal volume, throwinphins accrued $38K last year in just 1800 games with a massive $21 per game (4th in the Average Profit List). A 28% ROI playing exclusively $69 games is a feat worthy of nomination. Does he get your vote?

Vinkyy
Yet another cold-blooded killer who plies the majority of his trade at the $69 level, Vinkyy's 38% ROI (4th in Ave ROI List) is his biggest claim to fame. It's not his only one, however, as a $22 Average Profit (3rd in the Ave Profit List) and Total Profit of $36K in just 1700 games is just as little bit special!

WeirdThing
A hardcore regular, WeirdThing has played 6000 games and amassed $47K in Total Profits (9th on the Total Profit List). A 15% ROI at an Average Buy-In of $46 makes him a contender.

The 45-player game has been the bread 'n' butter of many professional poker players for the past 3 years. It offers a great 'low variance' way to build up your bankroll - something that was perhaps not available to a previous generation of poker player. The above players are the best players in this game and they are all playing at a level that far exceeds the modest stakes at which they play and I fully believe that there are big careers ahead of many of them. So who stands out as the best of the best?

Without doubt, it's a tougher game out there right now. Four months ago, I told several of my poker-buddies that we were in for a cold spell. Some of them agreed with me and others disagreed or at least downplayed the significance of the factors which I was illuminating. I argued that online poker had remained relatively untouched by the global recession. The reasons for this I surmised were the following:

1. The Gambling Industry is historically recession-proof (much like the booze industry and drug-trade).
2. Money in the system takes time to be redistributed from the weak to the strong players.
3. Full Tilt, Pokerstars et al were aggressively attacking new markets (Russia, South America, Continental and Eastern Europe), compensating for the reduction in US numbers.
4. Live players were moving into the online arena in an effort to reduce their overheads.

I predicted, however, that this wouldn't continue. My reasons were the following:

1. People may continue to gamble when times are tough but if they are losers, then there inevitably comes a point where they can no longer access (as much) money to wager.
2. Money in the system will eventually reside in the accounts of strong players and the accounts of weak players may not be reloaded (the inability to use one's US credit card to deposit funds onto the sites making life difficult for a would-be depositor).
3. While generally weaker in standard, many of the live players moving into the online arena are damn good and will quickly adjust to the nuances of online play.

I claimed that while the recession may have a delayed impact, it will impact us eventually. And add to the above reasons some other non-recession related factors and the game is destined to get tougher.

4. The sheer volume of information out there - instructional videos, poker magazines and books, forums, training sites - means that the overall standard has risen and continues to rise sharply.
5. At the upper end, software has helped good players make even better decisions as statistical data can inform marginal decisions, increasing the probability that will be made correctly.

Four months later and online poker is undeniably tougher. While this is great for the game - tough competition forces you to adapt, improve, deepen your thought process and bring a greater meta-game dimension to your play - it's not great for my bank balance. Lowering one's expectations (a lower ROI %) means accepting bigger swings, less overall profit and in some cases, swallowing your pride and dropping down a stake-level. One glance at the $69 45-mans on Full Tilt shows that this has occurred at the top level. Beasts like Danny Ryan (THE__D__RY) and Christian Iacobelis (da_professional) have started playing these games regularly. One glance at the $24 45-mans shows that guys who used to grind the $69ers have already dropped back down (presumably finding the $69ers too tough these days). However, the most damning evidence of what I am saying can be retrieved with a few Sharkscope searches. Do a $69 45-man search on the top 20 guys at this stake level in 2009 and take a look at their graphs. With 17 of the 20, you will discover the same anomaly - a sharp leveling off over the past 3 months as their ROIs have been halved, their percentages reduced to the low teens and, in some cases, single figures.

Despite all of this, I am optimistic for 2010. I am setting my goals realistically and would be very happy with making as much online profit as I did last year. The recession may end some time this year and if/when it does, I have no doubt that poker numbers will boom again. If the UIGEA gets thrown out, they will boom even harder. Poker is a great game and it is here to stay. Poker players might just have to tighten their belts for a little while.

Last Sunday, I was approached by a man who I both know by reputation and as a friend of a friend. Joe Attila Tosaky (better known as draqq in the online poker world) is a successful poker player in both the live and online arena. He has also made a killing over the past few years staking players through the parttimepoker.com website. A little over a year ago, he extended his interests beyond merely staking players. He prudently determined that there was an untapped niche in the market. What was it? The synergy of staking and coaching. Many sites offered training and tuition to poker players (Cardrunners, Stox, Pokerpwnage, etc) and Parttimepoker.com had a strangle-hold over the staking market. There was no-one, however, combining both of these areas, offering mentoring and backing to up-and-coming players, looking to make a career in poker.

And so, 'SNG Mentors' was born, a website dedicated to the instruction and financial support of poker players - and with it, an opportunity for young talented amateurs to develop their skills and define thier style with the help of seasoned professionals and without the risk of going broke. With their primary focus on the SNGs on Pokerstars, the experts in their ranks include Vers, Shen888, Manhat10ite, Jontsef, Whoopsy_Dazy, Wutank, Rat Sauce 89 and of course Draqq himself. Combined, these 8 players have almost half a million dollars in Pokerstars SNG earnings.

One year in, Draqq and his co-investors are looking to extend their operation. The Full Tilt market is their target and with that in mind, they are adding Full Tilt based pros to their coaching staff. I welcomed Draqq's offer to join his troupe and my first student is the talented Danish SNG grinder, Rasmus 'Sibist' Sibast. As the weeks and months go by, I expect to take several other students under my wing. Using Hand History Analysis and any other teaching tools at my disposal, my distinctly hermeneutic approach to coaching will allow players to grow and evolve from within their existing games, developing a style with which they are comfortable. Private one2one coaching with me will be advertised on the site but I hope to put in 30-40 hours a month with the students of SNG mentors, adding to the success of this fine enterprise.

It's been a busy month. Returning to my ultra-small-ball roots, I'm no longer a money-spewing donkey on the online tables, I beat my friend Julian '0vash0rk' Hasse at his own game (PLO!), won a Heads-up prop-bet, won the ISOP Player of the Series prop bet (Stephen 'Stinky Budz' O'Connor won Player of the Series but sadly for him, happily for me, he wasn't in the wager) and I spent a week with Dr Fill Good on this side of the pond (during which I saw the Pixies in New York, went to Mohegan Sun, lost a bunch on the NLHE cash-game tables, won a bunch on the PLO table, saw Phish in Albany, tried to sell cod-liver oil capsules to drug addicts outside the venue and got hustled by Patrick at a Mets game).

With the holidays fast approaching, I fear things may only get busy again soon so the plan is to scribble a few blogs over the next few days. Therefore, without further preamble, allow me to return to my recent weekend in Albany aka 'Sambuca-Gate':

We were walking from our car to a parking garage where I was to be begrudgingly indoctrinated (by Michelle) into the American tradition of 'tailgating', when all of a sudden we were faced with 3 cops up ahead. (For those of you unfamiliar with the term, 'tailgating' in this instance is not driving to close to the vehicle in front of you but rather drinking booze outside of ones parked vehicle with friends. In Ireland, this sort of activity is called 'knacker-drinking' and I grew out of it when I was about 15. I mean, what is the attraction of standing around in the cold when there are perfectly good pubs to go to? It's just so uncivilised!) Ordinarily, I would be concerned with the fact that I had an open bottle of hard liquor in my pocket but seeing as there were approximately 20,000 Phish-heads wandering the streets with their bottles of beer and spliffs in open sight, it was safe to assume a measure of tolerance by New York's finest. I couldn't have been more wrong.

"Evening officers", said I as they made eye-contact. "What's in your pocket there Sir", said one of the cops. I took out my two-thirds bottle of Sambuca. "You're gonna have to empty that", he said. I looked further up the street to the tens of revelers all drinking from opened beer-cans. "Are you serious?" "I am.", he replied. "You want me to just empty it onto the street?", I asked. He nodded, "It's the law, Sir'. Begrudgingly, I turned up my bottle and to make matters even more dramatic, the optic made my bottle painfully slow to empty. As Sambuca dribbled from my bottle, I told them how ridiculous this was and asked why they had singled me out. Patrick and Michelle urged me to stop complaining but I couldn't let it sit. As we walked to the nearest package store to buy more booze, we encountered dozens more cops all standing passively amongst thousands of people who were all enjoying an al fresco drink. Every so often, I would stop and ask them about their policy regarding on-street drinking and they would explain that they were not condoning it but, the night that was in it , they were happy to turn a blind-eye. 

I insisted to Michelle and Patrick that this was a clear example of racial profiling. They laughed and said that I was paranoid. I told them that the cop who stopped us was Italian and as soon as he heard my accent, he pounced - let's fuck up the Paddy's night by taking his booze! We bought more liquor and headed for the parking garage when low and behold, who do we meet but the three cops. Surrounded by drunks, pill-heads and stoners all drinking, popping and toking, I approached them, asking if they were going to do anything about all the law-breaking taking place around them. They told me to mind my own business. I pointed to all the law-breakers and told them that they had racially discriminated against me and that they were no better than the LAPD cops who attacked Rodney King in 1991.

In retrospect, I was lucky not to be hauled into prison. Then again, maybe I wasn't coz a prison cell would certainly have been warmer and more civilised than where I was headed.

Last April, Dublin Bellybusters and BadBeatsPoker.net hosted the inaugural ISOP (International Series of Online Poker) on the Full Tilt Poker Site. The Series was enjoyed by 76 players who took to the cyber-felt to compete for a total prize-pool of $18290. This month, the Bellybusters and BadBeats gang are going to do it all again. Between November 14th and 22nd, there will be a total of 17 tournaments. The password for all the tourneys is 'jiggerypokery' and the more the merrier!

The schedule for ISOP #2 is as follows:

Sat, Nov 14th, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP WARM UP EVENT
9-HANDED NLHE
$10+1
10 minute levels
1500 stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT I
6-HANDED NLHE - Antes From The Start
$100+9
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT II
9-HANDED NLHE
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 15th, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - EVENT III
9-HANDED PLO
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Mon, Nov 16th 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT IV
9-HANDED NLHE
$20+2 REBUY
10 minute levels
1500 Rebuys/2000 Top-Ups

Tue, Nov 17th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT V
9-HANDED MLHE (Rounds of Limit Hold Em and NL Hold Em)
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VI
PLO Heads-Up Shootout (16 max)
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 21.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VII
6-HANDED NLHE 2x Shootout (36 max)
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Wed, Nov 18th, 2009, 22.00ET
ISOP - EVENT VIII
9-HANDED NLHE TURBO
$100+9
5 minute levels
3K stack

Thur, Nov 19th, 2009, 20.00ET
ISOP - EVENT IX
8-HANDED HORSE
$50+5
6 minute levels
5K stack

Fri, Nov 20th, 2009, 19.00ET
ISOP - EVENT X
6-HANDED NLHE
$30+3 1 REBUY 1 ADD-ON
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XI
9-HANDED NLHE KO
$100+9 ($20 PER KO)
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XII
Heads-Up NLHE Shootout (16 max)
$50+5
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sat, Nov 21st, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XIII
6-HANDED NLHE TURBO
$24+2
5 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 16.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XIV
6-HANDED HA (Rounds of Pot Limit Hold Em and PLO)
$50+5
10 minute levels
5K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 17.00ET
ISOP - EVENT XV
9-HANDED NLHE 'DOUBLE CHANCE'
$24+2
10 minute levels
3K stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP - MAIN EVENT
9-HANDED NLHE
$200+16
10 minute levels
5000 stack

Sun, Nov 22nd, 2009, 18.00ET
ISOP CHARITY EVENT
6-HANDED NLHE SUPER TURBO
$5+5
3 minute levels
300 stack

There are satellites starting an hour before most of the events. The password for the satellites is 'ISOP'. Good luck to everyone who participates.

As many of the subscribers to this blog will know, I am a moderator and avid poster on the badbeatspoker.net forum. A truly excellent site with an intelligent and analytic membership, I often find the discussions I have on there both stimulating and inspiring. A recent thread started by Ryan Meyer, a fellow Bellybuster, prompted me to think about my own current predicament. Despite being an excellent and profitable player, he is currently struggling to make money from poker. His poor run has gone on for far longer than 'normal variance' and I couldn't help but see a huge similarity between his situation and my own. I wrote the following response which was immediately appreciated by several of my fellow forumers. I hope that it may be of help to other players who get into a funk from time to time:

"I myself have been running horribly of late and it is my belief now that bad luck is being compounded by bad play on my part. When things aren't going your way, I find that it can go one of two ways:

1 You loosen up in an effort to bash your way through the field... this takes the form of dinky-shipping (shoving for more than 10BBs with too wide a range from too reckless a position - yes PureProfitFour, there is such a thing as too wide and too reckless!), raising marginal hands from EP and getting caught having to make difficult decisions on later streets, re-raising with marginal holdings to late position raisers too often because your feeling like gambling, etc.

2 you become nitty in an effort to navigate your way through the field... this takes the form of playing too narrow a range from late position, never re-stealing with marginal hands, not c-betting when you miss and allowing yourself to be blinded down to the 5-7 BBs range before making an all-in play.

I think over the past two months, I've lost faith in the game that had made me a lot of money. I have developed the belief that it is no longer a profitable game, that mine has become an out-dated strategy, too exploitable and that the ever-growing number of pro-standard players on the 45man circuit have, for the most part taken the game onto a level which is forcing me to adapt my style.

Firstly, I think there is some truth to this. The game is tougher of late with far more profitable players per game on average. That, in itself, must lower ROI expectations and thus, we must lower our longterm profit goals per game. There is also the fact that poker has entered a new paradigm; it is no longer correct to wait until you have 5 BBs (in a game with no antes) before you should be All-in-Or-Fold as it was 10 years ago. It is no longer correct to wait until you have 7-8 BBs as it was 2-3 years ago. It is now imperative that you consider a 10 (possibly even 12-13) BB stack as a stack with no more poker to it. It is a stack which forces you out of the realm of regular poker and into a game of intimidation whereby you apply maximum pressure on your opponents by playing their calling-hand-ranges against them. Good players have realised this and have adjusted their calling ranges appropriately. They also recognise that endgame poker has become an all-out war for whatever fold-equity is left in the game. To these guys, the cards have not only become less relevant. They have become the enemy! Showdown is the enemy! If the cards are the luck factor, then for f**k sake, don't let them into the game wherever possible.

I would say that my game was a tighter, trappier game than that of the majority of online pros. My counter-strategy to their over-playing of hands (I don't use this term negatively) was to trap them so that we play big pots when I have a 70-30 edge. To do this, I limped hands like AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ and JJ with 12-15 BBs in EP and midP, hoping that a later position player would either shove light or raise, in which case I would call or reship all-in. The downside of this strategy was that I allowed the blinds to see flops with raggy hands and catch up on my QQ and AK with hands like K4 and 95. In these instances, I had to be willing to make some big folds and accept that as the hand panned out, I had lost the value of my hand. I had to take these small hits because the occasions where I got my opponent all-in 70-30 or 85-15 compensated me for them.

For a decent amount of time, this counter-strategy seemed to work. It was lucrative and I was making consistent money, maintaining a 25-30% ROI. That was until September when a period of bad variance became 8 weeks of break even results. For two months now, I have been treading water. I had never before had a 2 week period without profit and now its been 4 times that. I have been deeply analysing my game for over a month now and I realise that somewhere along the line, I have thrown the baby out with the bath water. Adaptations to my game were necessary but I didn't need the kind of over-haul that I got it into my mind that I did.

With things not going my way, I have compounded the negative variance by being guilty of both 1 and 2 above. Trying different things with no real consistency of thought, I have been both overly aggressive and too nitty. I have oscillated between different strategies at different times, never making any meaningful adaptation to my game. I have even tried different games, desperately looking for soft spots on the site.

Thus, my advice to Ryan and anyone else out there who is suffering a prolonged downswing is fourfold:

A
Know that every poker player goes through this kind of thing (except PPF!) and when your losing money, it quickly becomes irrelevant to you how much money you have made. A lack of confidence hits you at your core... its akin to the existential condition of 'being-in-the world' (Heidegger), that abyss beneath you, that lack of control over the results of your decisions. So, your first mission is to get confident again... a poker-player without confidence is never going to have the proper disregard for money necessary to make good decisions in marginal spots. This might require a short break from the game, a refresher read of your favourite poker book or just generally re-asserting your importance in the world in general and not just in a poker sphere (family, friends)

B
Do an honest analysis of you game. Watch back a sample of you games from the past month. Post some of the marginal hands on the site and get input from your colleagues/enemies here on the forum. Having coached a few players, I find that the problem almost always lies exactly where they don't think it does - eg. They fixate on how many final table bubbles they're having and believe that it's because they are losing all their crucial flips/70-30s but in reality they have been far too inactive earlier in the tournament during the period where they could have built a stack that would have withstood a badbeat or lost flip. They remember their crucial lost flip only because it knocked them out. Another aspect of this analysis should be a redefinition of attainable goals. IE: If the game has gotten tougher, readjust your target to an attainable ROI and recognise the acceptable swings that may be implied by this lowered figure (you will be making less and the downswings will be more severe from both a money and time standpoint)

C
Be brave and pull the trigger in marginal spots. This obviously ties in with A. Don't wait to have the best hand all the time. If you are playing well in a 1500 chip tournament with 6minute blind levels, you should find yourself getting it in with the worst hand (but with what you perceived as fold equity) an awful lot. Those guaranteed 30-32% hands (the AceX-sooteds) are the hands with which you want to make your moves. If there is good fold-equity, they are perfect because they play great when called... You'll take the beats less hard when your getting it in bad enough to deliver a few of your own!"

Last Friday, I played the 18K Guarantee in Mohegan Sun. Apart from a few 3-table turbo SNGs, this was my second ever live tournament experience (the first being four weeks ago in Barcelona). I hadn't planned to play a tourney that day but a dismal cash-game session the night before (3 nasty beats costing me over $500) meant that I was not in the mood to join Michelle on the $1/$2 tables. When we got to the poker room, the tournament was in the third blind level. Late registration was still available and suffice to say, I didn't need to have my arm twisted.

The tournament was fraught with arguments, mostly involving me. In the first hand that I played, I raised 2.7x from the HJ with the 56 of clubs. The BB called and the flop came J-9-9 with two spades. He checked and I fired a 60% of the pot bet. He called. The turn came the Ace of Clubs, he checked and figuring that it was a good card on which to fire a second bullet, I did. He called. The river came a red 7. He checked and I thought about firing a tiny bet, probably about 20% of the pot, in the hopes that he had Q10. In the end, I figured that it was not a likely enough holding given his turn call and I checked. He looked at me to turn up my hand. I pointed at him - "you first!" - not wishing to turn over my hand. The dealer looked at me and said "show your hand". "It's not my turn. Ask him to show his!" She told me that because he called my turn bet, it was up to me. I told her that she was wrong, at which point other players started giving me hassle. I told them that they should give the right person hassle or shut up. They told me I was wasting time. I told them that I was not the one wasting time and gestured to my opponent. "Fine, whatever..." he groaned, "I play the board". "Wow", I said, flipping up my hand, "I guess we chop then". He turns over Q10 and I erupt. "Why the fuck would you say you're playing the board when you're not!" "Oh, I'm sorry mate", he answered, "I assumed you had some piece". Pissed off that I was conned into showing my hand (and perhaps more annoyed that I didn't mini-fire the river), I mumbled something under my breath about amateur hour.

Two hours passed and having spent most of it rocking the short-stack, picking spots once an orbit to keep myself afloat, I finally hit a mini-rush, won a flip and got my stack up to the chip-average of 45,000. Not long after, a loud-mouthed New Yorker and his mountain of chips was moved to our table and he instantly started to get under everyone's skin, replaying his victorious hands from his previous table and generally bragging about what a great reader of men he is. I raised to 4200 from the HJ with the A5 of Spades and he called me from the button. The flop came 5-8-9 with the 89 of spades. happy to take it down there, I fire out 9500 into the 12K pot. He starts eye-balling me. I know that I'm not folding so I can't resist opening my mouth. "You getting a read on me?", I quipped with a goading smile. He calls and there is just over 30K in the pot. The turn comes a red 10. "All-in", I said and he leapt from his seat. "Count it", he ordered the dealer but before he did, I offered the pertinent information - "it's a little over th...". "Fuck it", he says, interrupting me, "I'm going with my read! I call." I turned over my hand and he whoops for joy. "I knew it", he said and he flipped over A10. "Uuugh, that's a sick call on the turn!", I said. "What are you talking about?", he retorted, "I knew you didn't have much". "Are you kidding me?", I replied, "You had two outs".

The dealer revealed the river - the 10 of spades. "Yeah, baby!", he yelled and clapped his hands right in my face. Unable to resist, I laughed out loud - "I have a flush, you moron". "Wait, what the fuck?", he said, "Aww, you're such a lucky punk!" "Oh, I'm a lucky punk, huh...", I answered, "... because I hit one of my 11 outs after you hit one of your two!" "Shut the fuck up", he screamed. "Why don't you shut the fuck up?", I hollered back. "Why don't you try to make me shut the fuck up?", he yelled. The dealer put his arms up, trying to calm the situation - "Gentlemen, please". "Okay, okay", I said magnanimously, "I have a solution. Why don't we both shut the fuck up but you ship your chips over to me". Needless to say all hell broke loose.

An hour later, we reached the bubble. There were 16 remaining and the chip average was 70K. I had amassed a ridiculous chip-lead with 280K in chips and there were several short-stacks. I had, of course been abusing the pre-bubble period for over twenty minutes, raising any unopened pot that got to me and re-raising the medium-stacks. Now that it was bubble-time, my plan was to be an even bigger maniac. My plan, however, was being thwarted by a 15-man push to pay the bubble-boy. "What's this?", I asked the player nearest me and he told me that everyone was putting $10 into a pot and whoever bubbled got the pot, effectively giving them their money back. "Fuck that!...", I said, "... The bubble is the bubble". The following five minutes went something like this:

Player 1: Ok, everyone get their ten bucks ready, I'll collect.
Me: Eh, I assume this isn't compulsory.
Player 2: It's not in the rules but everyone is doing it.
Me: Man, I can't do that. That would be me just giving money away.
Player 3: Hey, this guy is saying he's not doing it.
Player 4: What the fuck, man. We want to give the person who bubbles something.
Me: Then it's not really a bubble, is it.
Player 1: Hey, look, if you don't have the money, I'll put in for you.
Me: Thank you very much but I'm okay. I don't want to do it.
Player 4: That's bullshit man. It's ten lousy bucks.
Me: I'm sorry but from my point of view, that's a pure donation and I'm not in the habit of just giving money away.
Player 4: You're an asshole, that's what you are.
Me: Hey, there's no need for that. I'm not putting ten in so if I bubble, I don't get the pot. You guys can do what you like.
Player 5 (from the other table): Your being a total asshole dude!
Player 2: That's not right man. What if you were sitting here with 15K in chips.
Me: Then I would probably have an interest in making a deal like this. But there's no way I would expect charity from the big stacks who have no potential upside on something like this.
Player 4: That's just plain wrong. You know you're gonna come 10th now. You won't bubble but you won't go far in this tournament. That's what happens to guys like you.
Player 5: Everyone else here wants to do this and you don't. Doesn't that make it seem like you're the one with the problem.
Me: That's spurious reasoning Sir. I am the very player in this tournament who is damaged by this deal. I have the big stack right now and I obviously want to use the bubble to accumulate chips while people try to survive to the money. Making a deal like this takes the tension out of the bubble because every player now knows they will go home with money. So the last thing I'm going to do is actively participate in such a deal by donating ten bucks to one of the very players I'm trying to apply pressure to.
Player 3 (standing up with his arms aloft): 15 guys are making an agreement and this guy here (pointing at me) is the only person who won't agree. Now I'm not gonna say anything else about this apart from the fact that that says to me that you have a problem.

Applause from players at both tables.

Me: Right that's fucking it. I've been patient but you've taken this way too far. Call the floor.
Dealer: Floor.
Floor: What's the issue here?
Me: Firstly, I am being harassed here by half the people at my table because I'm not willing to make some sort of bubble deal which is not part of the rules. Secondly, this deal has delayed the progress of this tournament. Thirdly, this guy is now inciting an atmosphere of hatred by standing up and making this big grandiose speech.
Player 3: I said I wasn't gonna say anything else about this.
Floor: I did hear him say that Sir.
Me: Yes, but not before he stood up and declared to half the casino that I had a problem.
Player 3: You do have a problem.
Me: See, this is what I'm talking about. If you want to be seen to do your job properly, you should instantly give him a one orbit penalty for the way he's carried on and warn the rest of the table about their language and conduct.
Floor: Gentlemen, I'm not going to give anyone a penalty at this moment but I will if anything further is said.

From then on, everyone shut up and left me alone. I raised relentlessly for the next 15 minutes and finally bubbled the guy with whom I had the earlier argument and told to ship his chips to me. He was pissed off as he had the best of it with A4 against my J2. As the hands were shown down, he said I knew you were full of it. I laughed. "Good read", I said, "Do you think I had a premium hand each of the other 12 times that I raised this hour". I rivered a two and he punched the table in anger. I said nothing more as he skulked away.

It wasn't long before we went final table. I lost a few flips versus short-stacks and then a medium sized pot with QQ versus AQ. By 5-handed play, I was back to an average stack. In the SB, I limped with 46 and the BB called. The flop came 4-5-5 and I bet 16K into the 22K pot. He raised to 55K and I tanked. I didn't think he would raise with a 5 and although my 4 was not a good one, I decided to go all-in for 190K. I thought that there was a decent chance he would fold a 4 if he had one and a decent chance I'd get a chop if he called with one. I figured him for either air or a draw. If he had a draw with overs, say 36 or 67, then my having a 6 in my hand took away some of his outs. He might also fold a draw. As soon as I shipped, he called and I was happy to see that he did indeed have a draw with 67. The turn came an 8 to make him  a straight but all was not lost as it was the 8 of diamonds giving me a flush draw. The river came a diamond and I was up to over 350K.

As soon as we got down to three, there was talk of a chop. I had 290K to my opponent's 340K and 390K. I said that I was happy to do an even chop if they were. The chip-leader looked as though he was going to veto the deal until I suggested us each taking $3200 and playing for $1200 winner-take-all. He said he would agree if it was $3K each and we play for $1800. We all shook hands and continued with the game. I chopped away at a few small pots before the following hand:

With the blinds 10K/20K, I raised to 48K from the button with KK. Both players called and the flop came Q-2-2 with 2 diamonds. The SB lead out for 90K, the BB folded and I smooth called, assuming he has a Q. The turn came a third diamond and he went all-in. I hated that card but I called, figuring he would still go all-in with a queen in his hand. He flipped up A2 and I was out in 3rd. A somewhat disappointing end but all in all, it was another successful live poker tournament under my belt.

Immediately after the tournament, the press took their pound of flesh with a zillion photos of me with my over-sized €60,000 check, several Dictaphone interviews and finally, a TV interview for the end of the broadcast. I relished the opportunity to thank the staff at both the Gran Casino Barcelona and Full Tilt who put on such a marvelous event. Talking to the other players, they all agreed that the Espana Series is a fantastic festival of No Limit Hold ‘Em and the Grand Final in Madrid is sure to be a worthy climax. Spain is a premier destination – great food, great weather, great people – and Full Tilt know how to host a deep-stacked tournament with a great structure.

I would sincerely recommend these events to any poker connoisseur. As the only other Irishman that I met at the event said to me, “I play a lot of tournaments on the British Circuit and it’s just so much better coming to Barcelona. When you get knocked out here, you’re in Barcelona but if you get knocked out in Luton… well fuck man,… you’re in Luton!”

Sunday, October 4th, 2009: The Full Tilt Espana Series - Barcelona Event, Day 3 (Evening)
Cesar had under 500K so the next hand we contested would likely put him at risk. That hand happened to be the very next one.
 
Hand 14 - Day 3, Blinds 25000/50000, 3.55M
Cesar raised to 175K and I looked down at the A9 of hearts. I put him all-in and he instantly called. The flop brought me no help but the turn brought a second heart to give him a sweat. 11 outs but the dealer could find none of them as we retook our seats and went back to battle.

Hand 15 - Day 3, Blinds 25000/50000, 2.6M
Cesar got some momentum going, winning a few small pots and getting himself back up to 1.4 million. On the Button, he raised to 150K and I called with the A4 of clubs. The flop came AKQ rainbow, I checked and surprisingly, he checked. The turn came a 4, completing the rainbow board and making me two pair. I bet 200K and without hesitation, Cesar made it 600K. It was obviously an all-in or call situation. I tanked for bout 5 minutes, going through the hand combinations that I was beating and the ones that were beating me. I could beat A10, AJ, KQ, K10, KJ, K4, Q10, QJ, Q4 and a total bluff. I didn’t think Cesar would raise one pair here unless he had some other outs but I did think that he was capable of taking a stab with nothing. I was crushed by AK, AQ, any set and J10. On balance, I figured my hand was good about 40% of the time and I effectively had to put in 1 million to win a 2.8 million pot (35%). I shoved and irrespective of the outcome, this is the only decision I regret in retrospect. Cesar insta-called, having flopped broadway and doubled up to 2.8 million in chips. I have mulled over this hand in the days since and now believe I made a poor decision. Based on a weighted sizing up of his range, I think I was probably about 27%, making it a clear-cut fold.

Hand 16 - Day 3, Blinds 25000/50000, 1.1M
Two hands later, Cesar raised to 175K and I looked down at AQ. I shoved for 1.1 million and he insta-called, flipping up AK. I shook his hand and we wished each other luck. The flop brought a Queen, much to the delight of me and my fairly inebriated railbirds. The turn, however, brought the King and I was down to miserable 2 outs. Sadly for me, there was no sick river and Cesar was the champion of Barcelona.

Cesar played very well throughout the day, expertly managing his short-stack until a well-timed card-rush put him in the mix. It was good for Spanish poker to have a Spanish winner so, as much as I wanted the title, I am extremely happy for him. A nice guy, a passionate card-player and a worthy champion, he will be a great ambassador for the game in Spain.